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Independence of the central bank and international reserves and the general budget in Iraq
On: Tuesday 08/05/2012 19:22
Part III and final
Dr. Ali Mirza
Fifth:
Accumulated surplus of the general budget
A. I have taken the issue of estimating the balance of the budget surplus accumulated in Iraq stepped grants depends on the evidence from secondary sources or indirect, rather than on the official primary sources. At this time can be had for the Ministry of Finance published official figures on the surplus / deficit annual actual (not just planned in the annual budgets) and the addendum to draw from the balance of the surplus accumulated at the end of each year, the service of transparency, which will allow for those interested in evaluation and knowledge of the best ways to finance the deficit. So far as I know, there is no official figures about the development of a clear balance of accumulated surplus and annual additions or withdrawals from it. To look at the table (1) which shows the numbers collected from the annual publications of the Central Bank of revenues and actual expenditures for the general budget.
In this table, if the surplus each year is added to income for the year following the annual surplus in the last column is the balance of the surplus accumulated since 2003. However, reading the balance of the surplus accumulated from the table in this way is based on the assumption Mmahs and needs to be confirmed by official sources.
However, although there is evidence that the accumulated surplus at the end of 2009 may be higher than shown in this table, see: IMF (2010a) Page 17, as in the table assume that the balance of accumulated surplus at the end of 2010 is 5.2 trillion dinars. In light of our appreciation for the 2011 surplus by $ 8.2 trillion dinars, and that we mentioned in a previous article, see Mirza (2012), we estimate that the surplus accumulated in the end of 2011 was about 13.4 trillion dinars (5.2 8.2). On the other hand, the data and the Oil Ministry on its website show that the crude oil export revenues for the first three months of 2012 amounted to $ 22.2 billion. And subtracting 5 percent of the Kuwait war reparations net revenues $ 21.1 billion. Here it is appropriate to recall that the 2012 budget drawn on the basis of export price of $ 85 a barrel and exports 2.6 million barrels / day (m b j). That is, they painted on the basis that a net crude oil export revenues $ 19.1 billion, after deducting the compensation of the Kuwait war (85 $ × 2.6 m b j × 91 days × 95%). From these accounts it appears that the actual net export earnings of the first three months of 2012 is more than two billion dollars, which was expected when drawing the budget 2012. And these two billion dollars automatically equate to 2.34 trillion dinars. At any time the deficit was planned in the budget of 2012 is 14.8 trillion dinars, the accumulated surplus at the end of 2011 plus the actual increase in oil export revenues in the first three months of 2012 (what a graphic in the budget) allows additional funding increased by 15.74 trillion dinars (13.4 2.34 ). This amount goes beyond the planned deficit for 2012 at about 0.94 trillion dinars.
B. However, if this series of numbers or references are inaccurate we hope the Ministry of Finance, which is the primary source of reliable financial statements, published official figures, the actual surplus / deficit annual physical and the balance of the surplus accumulated (from previous years so far) even avoided sites slippage and exaggeration. And I had hit the analogy in my article referred to above, on the transparency of the knowledge accumulated surplus of the balance of payments in the calculation of international reserves (foreign currency reserves and gold) and the absence of a reserve account known about the accumulated surplus is similar to the general budget. I would love if it is done and not to leave things susceptible to interpretation and guesswork.
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On: Tuesday 08/05/2012 19:22
Part III and final
Dr. Ali Mirza
Fifth:
Accumulated surplus of the general budget
A. I have taken the issue of estimating the balance of the budget surplus accumulated in Iraq stepped grants depends on the evidence from secondary sources or indirect, rather than on the official primary sources. At this time can be had for the Ministry of Finance published official figures on the surplus / deficit annual actual (not just planned in the annual budgets) and the addendum to draw from the balance of the surplus accumulated at the end of each year, the service of transparency, which will allow for those interested in evaluation and knowledge of the best ways to finance the deficit. So far as I know, there is no official figures about the development of a clear balance of accumulated surplus and annual additions or withdrawals from it. To look at the table (1) which shows the numbers collected from the annual publications of the Central Bank of revenues and actual expenditures for the general budget.
In this table, if the surplus each year is added to income for the year following the annual surplus in the last column is the balance of the surplus accumulated since 2003. However, reading the balance of the surplus accumulated from the table in this way is based on the assumption Mmahs and needs to be confirmed by official sources.
However, although there is evidence that the accumulated surplus at the end of 2009 may be higher than shown in this table, see: IMF (2010a) Page 17, as in the table assume that the balance of accumulated surplus at the end of 2010 is 5.2 trillion dinars. In light of our appreciation for the 2011 surplus by $ 8.2 trillion dinars, and that we mentioned in a previous article, see Mirza (2012), we estimate that the surplus accumulated in the end of 2011 was about 13.4 trillion dinars (5.2 8.2). On the other hand, the data and the Oil Ministry on its website show that the crude oil export revenues for the first three months of 2012 amounted to $ 22.2 billion. And subtracting 5 percent of the Kuwait war reparations net revenues $ 21.1 billion. Here it is appropriate to recall that the 2012 budget drawn on the basis of export price of $ 85 a barrel and exports 2.6 million barrels / day (m b j). That is, they painted on the basis that a net crude oil export revenues $ 19.1 billion, after deducting the compensation of the Kuwait war (85 $ × 2.6 m b j × 91 days × 95%). From these accounts it appears that the actual net export earnings of the first three months of 2012 is more than two billion dollars, which was expected when drawing the budget 2012. And these two billion dollars automatically equate to 2.34 trillion dinars. At any time the deficit was planned in the budget of 2012 is 14.8 trillion dinars, the accumulated surplus at the end of 2011 plus the actual increase in oil export revenues in the first three months of 2012 (what a graphic in the budget) allows additional funding increased by 15.74 trillion dinars (13.4 2.34 ). This amount goes beyond the planned deficit for 2012 at about 0.94 trillion dinars.
B. However, if this series of numbers or references are inaccurate we hope the Ministry of Finance, which is the primary source of reliable financial statements, published official figures, the actual surplus / deficit annual physical and the balance of the surplus accumulated (from previous years so far) even avoided sites slippage and exaggeration. And I had hit the analogy in my article referred to above, on the transparency of the knowledge accumulated surplus of the balance of payments in the calculation of international reserves (foreign currency reserves and gold) and the absence of a reserve account known about the accumulated surplus is similar to the general budget. I would love if it is done and not to leave things susceptible to interpretation and guesswork.
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