“International Monetary” gives Gulf economies a “more positive” outlook thanks to oil
363 Economy 10/12/2022 22:24 ak
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The International Monetary Fund fixed its forecast for the growth of the Saudi economy during 2022 at 7.6 percent, which is the second time in a row after the expectations of last July and April, to become the highest growth among the "Group of Twenty" countries.
According to the October World Economic Outlook report, which was released on Tuesday, the Fund also maintained its forecast for the growth of the Saudi economy for 2023 at 3.7 percent, which is the same as its previous forecast and higher than the April forecast of 3.6 percent.
Positive outlook for the Gulf countries
This positive outlook extends to the rest of the Gulf Arab countries that benefit from the rise in oil prices, as the Fund estimates the average price of a barrel at 98 dollars this year, dropping to 85.5 dollars in 2023.
The report stated that Kuwait achieved the highest jump in terms of expected growth this year, which will reach 8.7 percent, compared to 5.7 percent as expected in April.
The UAE economy is likely to grow 5.1 percent, Oman 4.4 percent, Qatar and Bahrain 3.4 percent for each country, according to the fund, which raised its estimates for the growth of the Middle East and North Africa region from 0.6 percent to five percent this year.
With regard to the rest of the Arab countries other than the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Fund expected Iraq to achieve the highest growth in the region by 9.3 percent, up half a percentage point from the April estimates.
The fund also raised the expectations of the Egyptian economy to 6.6 percent, up from 6.1 percent during previous figures. As for the year 2023, the Fund reduced its forecast for the growth of the Egyptian economy from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent due to challenges from abroad.
bleak outlook for the global economy
The Gulf recovery is offset by bleak expectations by the International Monetary Fund that global growth will slow to 2.7 percent next year, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than its estimates for the month of July, and 2023 is likely to be a recession for millions around the world, and this is the fourth reduction consecutively since the beginning of this year.
Regardless of the global financial crisis and the height of the "Covid-19" pandemic, the IMF said in a report that this is "the weakest growth rate since 2001."