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An expected Iraqi deal to buy a deterrent weapon against Turkey and upset the balance of power.. The fifth generation is coming

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An expected Iraqi deal to buy a deterrent weapon against Turkey and upset the balance of power.. The fifth generation is coming

   1,217 Security 09/12/2022 00:00 ak
Baghdad today - translation

An American research center confirmed today, Sunday, that Iraq's demand to buy Dassault Rafale fighters from France raises eyebrows in Washington.

A report by the James Down Foundation for American Research, which was translated by (Baghdad Today), said,

"Paris is looking at the arms market in the Middle East, and has signed important agreements with Egypt and the UAE - and now Iraq.

At a time of increasing competition in the fourth and fifth generation aircraft sector, A French deal with Iraq would significantly increase the French company's leverage in the booming combat aircraft sales market."

"Besides the geopolitical risks of selling out the sensitive regional balance of power between Iraq and its close adversaries, Baghdad's pursuit of French Rafales will have broader consequences for regional security from a technical point of view.

If the composition of aircraft weapons systems includes meteorites rather than mecha missiles, it could shift The regional balance of power is rapidly in favor of Iraq.

Thus, the Baghdad-Paris agreement will lead to a paradigm shift in the anti-terror policy of a major NATO country - Turkey."  He noted that

"by using Rafale aircraft, Iraq can prevent Turkish aircraft from entering its airspace and impede Turkey's ongoing military operations in northern Iraq."  He continued,

"UAVs have become an integral part of Turkish intelligence efforts in these areas, Turkish intelligence expertise and precision deep strike capabilities are essential.

After the start of the Syrian Civil War, Turkish counter-terror operations in the region shifted to the concept of operations (CONOPS) which was Drones are greatly enhanced, with the aim of minimizing risks and minimizing personnel loss.Syrian airspace remains a particularly dangerous area, and Turkey lost an F-4 Phantom aircraft to the Syrian Arab Air Defense Forces in 2012.

Currently, the Iraqi Air Force cannot stop Turkish air strikes against the PKK. However, the scenario in which the Iraqi Air Force flies Rafale aircraft with advanced air missiles may be a disruptive factor for Ankara's strategy in northern Iraq."  He continued,

"Given the versatility of the Rafale aircraft and its combat performance, Iraq's preference for it is logical.

The Rafale is already an advanced aircraft in high demand in the Middle East, as evidenced by the Egyptian and Emirati cases, where both countries chose Rafales instead of the F-35. In

In the case of Baghdad, the main factor that pushed Baghdad into the arms of Paris, however, was Washington's refusal to provide Baghdad with the ammunition needed to operate its F-16s at full capacity.  And he added,

"Currently, the Iraqi Air Force has 34 F-16 aircraft.

However, Western intelligence claims that at least 10 of these aircraft have been permanently grounded due to lack of maintenance and equipment.

This creates a weakness in the Iraqi air capabilities, This prevents Baghdad from being able to fully operate the F-16s.

Following the attack on Balad Air Base, which hosts US forces, in April 2020, Lockheed Martin and other major defense companies withdrew their personnel from Iraq.  This disrupted support Maintenance and training for the Iraqis.

So, while competitors were quickly transitioning to 4.5 generation solutions, there was primarily a fear of backwardness, but another major factor was the lack of certified munitions that Washington provided to Baghdad.

Overall, what makes the weapons system truly effective Not only the platform itself, but also the configuration of the weapons and sensors that it comes with, which France may be willing to provide to Iraq."  He pointed out that

"Paris, had already made a successful entry into the defense market in the Middle East before rumors about Iraq's possible purchase of Rafale aircraft. Last year, France sold Rafale aircraft to the Egyptians and Emiratis, with the latter buying a total of 80 aircraft.

Thus, the French deal The Iraqi potential would deepen the already prominent French footprint in the defense industry in the Middle East.

Another aspect that makes Iraq a particularly attractive client for France is its alleged proposal to pay for its combat aircraft with oil.

Due to the looming oil crisis resembling the 1973 shock, it became Paris now urgently needs to find an alternative to Russian energy where its new client, Iraq, may be the solution."  He explained,

"However, acquiring the Rafale is not a panacea for air superiority.

In fact, the game-changing factor will be the munitions that accompany the Rafale.

Whereas a deal that includes a medium-range Mica missile will not have a significant impact on the balance sheet." With regional powers, the scenario in which Paris supplies Baghdad with Meteor missiles will be the real turning point.

Acquiring the Meteor beyond visible range (BVR) missiles means that Iraq gets improved offensive capabilities that can engage a wide range of targets ranging from armed unmanned vehicles to cruise missiles.

This would enable Baghdad with a flexible military capability, as well as an advantage in regional airspace."

Meteor missile repercussions:

A scenario in which the Iraqi Raffles planes come with Meteor missiles will have serious repercussions.

First: Such a purchase would change the balance of power between Israel and the countries of the region. Supplying Tel Aviv's adversary, Iraq, with Meteor missiles would directly undermine Israel's qualitative military advantage in the region.

Second, equipping the Iraqi Air Force with Rafale fighter jets and Meteor missiles will have repercussions on Turkey's counterterrorism policy.

Currently, the Iraqi Air Force has no advantage over the Turkish Air Force. This will still be true if Turkey buys a modernized F-16 from Washington or chooses a temporary replacement.

However, a scenario in which Ankara fails to transition to a 4.5 generation air combat or configuration that includes Meteor missiles will then provide Baghdad with a clear advantage over Ankara.

The superior Iraqi air capabilities would allow Iraq to deprive Turkey of its national airspace and impede Turkish operations in northern Iraq. In addition, the Iraqi air force equipped with Raffles and BVR missiles poses a great danger to Turkish manned aircraft.

Exploiting the vacuum created by Washington, Paris is rapidly filling the Middle East arms market with advanced systems and generous technical assistance.

Moreover, Paris is determined to meet the region's growing demands, even if at the cost of changing the regional balance of power and rewriting counterterrorism rules to a major NATO ally like Turkey, if not Israel as well.

In short, Iraq's pursuit of the Rafale may soon alter regional dynamics, and the United States' reluctance to share its technology will be a factor behind this development."

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