The collapse of the Iraqi economy 2024
hello ligature guide 118 2021-06-04
Salam ligature guide ||
Since 2019, I have been saying that after only five years, the features of the economy’s collapse will begin, as our economy is not separated from the global economy, by not relying on the rentier economy and restoring the internal economic movement, as is the case in Iran, which has been going through a financial crisis for 40 years due to the blockade imposed on it,
and we will be like Venezuela, the owner The second oil reserve in which the collapse of the local currency reached the equivalent of toilet paper.
Because of the miserable political and economic management, Iraq will go through the stage of the phenomenon of inflation, which is the depreciation of the local currency, which leads to the collapse of the currency and thus an increase in the deficit in the balance of payments and an increase in the prices of commodities, especially the basic ones, as well as the exploitation of some to monopolize basic materials and thus raise the price of the material insane due to the lack of control local economics.
One of the most important reasons for the phenomenon of sudden inflation is the ill-considered decisions of governments, such as appointing the largest number of employees and loading the operating budget over its capacity, so that it reached 110 percent in 2020 and the citizen’s lack of confidence in the local currency.
When the phenomenon of media intimidation occurs to the citizen, you will find him the first to get rid of his currency by replacing it with a foreign currency and thus it will accumulate The local ones are in the hands of countries and the foreign ones will be inside the homes of citizens or outside the country, so the value of the currency will fall and the result will be a rapid collapse and economic stagnation.
In this case, the government will resort to one of the two solutions (of course I see it as a dilemma, not a solution).
The closest solution is to impose austerity that directly affects the citizen and affects his purchasing power and thus There will not be any economic recovery soon,
but the peak may turn into a direct collapse without going through the stage of stability, which is called an attempt to cut the bleeding and the other solution that Dr. Muhammad Mazhar Saleh touched on in his article on currency printing,
and he touched on the benefits and damages of printing the currency locally and the truthI see that he was not successful, as he presents his brilliant and real ideas in the virtuous city.
In Iraq, the printing of the currency, we have experience in it, and most of us lived during the fall of the Iraqi dinar, which was equivalent to $3.3 in the year 1979, and after less than 20 years, one dollar became returned to 3300 dinars.
Iraqi As if we searched all corners and shed light on them, we will find that the local printing of the currency, I do not say most of it, but it is all a disaster in the sense of the word.
If we assume that we print our currency in the Central Bank of Iraq, does the doctor guarantee that the region (for example) does not visit this currency and leak it to the Iraqi market, and thus it will be Each dollar is equivalent to 10 thousand dinars at the earliest.
The printing of local currency must also be equivalent to foreign currency and gold, or parallel to the country's gross domestic product.
In a simpler way, the state must link foreign exchange and gold on the one hand, and the local currency on the other, and between goods and services, and in all the cases I mentioned, Iraq cannot implement any of them.
As for some countries printing their currency internally, the answer is clear.
These countries are working to pump blood into the arteries of the strong and controlled national economy so that investors will salivate because of the cheapness of goods, services and manpower.
But the best solution
1. An economic map must be drawn up away from the ruler's control, his desires, and the stupidity of some of his advisors, and it should be an immediate and a long-term plan
2. Reviving the internal economy from industry, agriculture and services by imposing high taxes on imported materials and canceling taxes on raw materials, which is the opposite of what is currently being done
3. Reducing the number of government employees
4. Restoring the citizen's confidence in his currency and returning foreign currency to the government pocket
5. Selling raw government assets
6. Facilitating the way for the foreign investor, as in Ethiopia, which punishes the employee who delays the investor's treatment for more than one day
7 . Track Smuggled Money
8. Transferring surplus employees between ministries and departments instead of appointing new employees
9. Beneficiaries of social welfare are referred to the municipal departments to work on cleaning their alleys and residential neighborhoods (for those who are able to work