Iraq's position on maintaining growth and achieving prevention of financial and economic risks
07/7/2018 12:00 am
Aqeel Jabr Ali Al - Mahmoudawi
Economic policy, with its various branches, whether financial, monetary, commercial, or other, is one of the means of the governments of countries to achieve a set of economic and social objectives of particular effect. Of course, human and natural resources are involved, as well as balance in the external economic sector and financial and economic stability and thus the equitable distribution of individual incomes.
When finance ministers and central bankers representing the G-20 members met in October, optimism prevailed over the recovery of the global economy and the opportunity for necessary reforms.
When they met again in Buenos Aires the following week, they focused on the policies needed to protect this recovery from the risks of negative developments and promote growth in the next phase.
The good news is that the momentum of growth is growing stronger across three quarters of the global economy.
Moreover, the expected recovery indicators suggest that they will lead to prudential requirements and impose a slowdown at the end of 2018 and 2019, which means that the medium term outlook will pose challenges to many Especially developed economies.
Therefore, developing countries, including Iraq, need to implement policies to prevent the risks of negative developments, enhance the strength and strength of the economy, and support medium-term growth that benefits all.
We have international financial and economic commitments with the Bank, It has some international and international financial institutions on the scheduling of debt repayment obligations the public debt.
We believe that this is the ideal time to take bold policy measures and make the most of the world's growth period; advanced economies in the current and next years are expected to have growth rates that exceed their medium-term growth potential, which is still below the required level and growth and sustainability are expected to increase.
Emerging and developing countries, including Iraq over the medium term, are supported by a limited improvement in the outlook for commodity exporters.
Steps, with practical priorities, are expected from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and international financial institutions
- Stay away from protectionism (destructive because it imposes the greatest pressure on the poorest consumers who buy relatively cheaper imports).
- Addressing the global economic imbalances is not imposed by new trade barriers, but must be addressed by using financial instruments, including reducing the deficit to reach public debt to a sustainable path and the need to strengthen investment in infrastructure and increase spending on education, agriculture and industry to meet the requirements of development.
Prevention of financial risks
At the global level, the debts of sovereign entities, companies and institutions levels are unprecedented high, but in Iraq, the public debt exceeded 100 billion dollars and this would show real danger to the financial situation and may reach a stage of financial crisis real.
The scenario of inflationary growth can be seen as an unexpected boom and the financial situation is suddenly tightened.
These changes drive correction in financial markets and this is evident in improving performance and active diligence in dealing with Iraq's financial instruments and policies.
There are real concerns about the affordability of public debt and the reversal of capital flows in emerging markets.
Countries such as Iraq could seize the opportunity of the current economic growth momentum by adopting safety margins in their public finances, creating a space to manage the expected downtime according to economic situation variables and using their macro and micro prudential policies actively.
In emerging economies, flexible exchange rates could help ease The external shocks, either in Iraq is indicative of the non-elasticity of exchange rates and closer to the stability and this is what we have seen in the crisis of low prices for the sale of oil and the exposure of Iraq from strong economic and financial shocks directly affected the reality of the federal budget and the disruption of federal projects Mariyah and development.
Accelerating economic reforms
These reforms can be implemented significantly and easily whenever economies are healthier. In other words, now is a good time to accelerate reforms and must target markets and key labor sectors.
Reduce skills gap
The reduction of the skills gap is more important today than ever before, because the digital revolution, electronic commerce and the digital economy are beginning to transform workplace and industry. McKinsey's global estimate is that 375 million workers at 14 percent of global employment may be at risk of losing jobs by the year 2030.
We can certainly say that it will require action at the level of national strategies and policies.
Documenting international cooperation and beneficial international agreements
Efforts should be intensified and agreements concluded in the form of mutual interests, attract investment, increase the movement and cycle of capital that achieve financial stability and mitigate the expected financial and economic risks, including the risk of increasing public debt and the risks of money laundering and terrorism financing.
Therefore, we believe that there are basic requirements for the prevention of financial and economic risks in Iraq as the precise identification of the model and the appropriate Iraqi economic model is very important in accordance with the capabilities and capabilities of Iraq and its geo-economic and geopolitical position, as well as the need to create a department to manage risks and crises, The State, both in the public sector and the private sector to become decisions of the decision-maker more accurate and correct and away from decisions based on non-specialized committees and studied.
It is necessary to submit plans and strategies to the oversight and audit of the Office of Financial Supervision and to prove its real institutional reference to achieve effective control and implementation, evaluation and evaluation in a realistic, thoughtful and concrete.
We believe that the deterioration of the financial and economic crises in Iraq is beginning to change some of the managers of this file and neutralize it nationally and strengthen it with financial figures ambitious and able, as well as the economic figures expert has the ability and possibility of the practice of professional and scientific not only at the local level, but internationally and knowledge of technology electronically.
As the file efficiency management and leadership of the economic and financial file is vital and strategic, which directly affects the structure of the Iraqi economy and rebuild the infrastructure to qualify the national agricultural and industrial sectors.
It is necessary to transfer the public debt portfolio to an expert working team, accounting and legal specialist independently of the federal budget and subjecting it intensively to the internal and external audit bodies, and to work on scheduling the public debt and analyzing debt reconstruction with transparency, professionalism and responsibility.
It is also important to change the reality of investment vision and culture and accurately diagnose the reality of investment risks in Iraq. It requires planning and hard work specialized to prepare the requirements of the investment environment and work on studying the investment risks and creating real incentives for an investment market that works to attract foreign investments and capital and encourage economic growth that shares its fruits. everybody.
* Financial Researcher