Dr. Ahmed Abrehi Ali *: The growth of the Iraqi economy towards the year 2040 - Scenario of the main course
by Iraqi Network of Economists
- Posted on 18/06/2018
This research presents a scenario within a macroeconomic framework for Iraq until 2040. Based on global development patterns and successful economic development standards, a set of quantitative controls has been adopted to simulate alternative paths of investment and growth.
Taking into consideration the current state of the oil resource , the prospects of the oil market and non- oil production capacity in Iraq, the scenario ended with 8.04% annual growth rate of non-oil GDP and 6.81% for the entire economy.
The paper shows, in some detail, the fundamental changes required in the sectoral structure of production, and through the accelerated development of non- oil commodity activities.
Therefore, the structural obstacles of the Dutch disease, the inefficiency of public investment programs, and the negativity of the bureaucratic apparatus must be removed.
Although growing global competition and technological change have made manufacturing difficult in Iraq, there are no other ways to thrive.
Also, demand for foreign currency and government spending has been calculated based on alternative assumptions to close the gaps with non- oil exports and new sources of revenue.
The paper showed the path of investment in terms of the composition of fixed domestic capital in crude oil and non-oil sector, which is the latter 36% of its gross domestic product on average, and at the macro level up to 27% of GDP.
Growth was also analyzed and evaluated in another model and the results were supportive. In addition to this, the internal rates of return have been derived to help in selecting better investment projects and controlling the capital budget.
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Iraq's economy on the long-term growth path Microsoft Word Document
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