Budget and oil prices
Author: Mohamed Sherif Abu Maysam
15/1/2018 12:00 am
The draft budget of 2018 was built on the basis of the sale price of oil of 43.4 dollars per barrel, and production capacity estimated at 3 million and 888 thousand barrels per day, so the volume of oil revenues 73.2 trillion dinars added to non-oil revenues estimated at 12.1 trillion Iraqi dinars, which means that The total revenues will be about 85.3 trillion dinars against the total expenditure of 108.113 trillion dinars and accordingly the budget will be against a planned deficit estimated at 22.782 trillion dinars.
On the other hand, oil prices continue to rise, with crude oil futures recording a Brent crude price
of $69.47 a barrel on Thursday. WTI futures traded at $63.94 a barrel, the closest price to Iraq's light crude.
Regardless of what is said about the cold season or stopping some production in North America, the reality is that oil giants in the markets are able to control the price adjustment game that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has had an impact on after its members' The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said in a statement that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is committed to reducing supply by the end of this year.
Which means that there is a common desire between the OPEC countries and the non-OPEC producing countries with the major international companies that control market prices to avoid the tension caused by non-market prices on the market movement for a longer period of fear of resorting to producing countries to further reduce production.
This indicates the possibility of balance In the market during the current year and the desire of the giants of the market, who will push towards the nearing of oil prices from the minimum real prices at the very least.
Of this or that, the current price ranges are the closest to the reality of the minimum over the coming months, Yale oil, which was calculated on the basis of $43.3 is really far from the worst case scenario according to current data and potential data during the months of the current year.
The fact that the price of oil is one of the most important elements of the budget is dangerous, and that exaggerating the price of this over-exaggeration of expenses led to the recurrence of the state of disability that is covered Through external borrowing.
Thus, the possibility of the price of selling the guesswork in the budget of 2018 at 49.4 dollars per barrel is closer to the logic, and the simple deficit will decrease to about 12 trillion Iraqi dinars and we will avoid the evils of further external debt accompanied by more conditions that bind generations Coming.