Dr Mohamed Saleh appearance *: rental cash in Iraq: monetary conditions in unregulated markets *
By د. مظهر محمد صالح
- Posted in 06/09/2017
In the framework of thinking one of the dominant concepts in the science of money called Monetary conditions and monetary conditions that criticizing the standard called those conditions index (MCI – which counts compositions written for a small number of financial market variables throughout the economy and in particular the rates Short-term nominal interest rates and the local currency at Forex), led me thinking to address the issue of monetary conditions analysis and alnkodi behavior in unregulated market in Iraq (under market mostly limited their dealings with cash credit out of the system. A formal or legal and Banking Act in behaviours outside the Monetary Authority controls), and vary in levels of homogeneity with the market organization under the supervision and control of the Monetary Authority.
Between those two markets show variables in cash transactions to stream mounting RIBA speculative cash from outside the formal banking system. It is an emergent property or style called rent money Renting or leasing currency currency. It is an accelerated form of illegal cash transactions for credit market informal or irregular cash. Credit is mostly speculative foreign exchange needs, linked to the cost of renting money is directly proportional to the difference in exchange rates set by the Central Bank's official central market and the parallel market.
Rental rate local currency (the dinar) today by about 15% per month and is a very high rate on annual level of short-term nominal interest. And about the money and thus rental rates, excessive lending that did not match the price deflation and recession in macroeconomics, goes this research investigation which show the written compositions for monetary conditions within the cash market in Iraq and scale of rates The parallel market exchange or unorganized compared to structures in the market organization, especially in the areas of interest rate and exchange rate.
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Mudher M. Saleh-Renting money-final
Dr. Mazhar Mohammed Saleh:* leasing the money in Iraq:
Of Cash break in non-regulated organization * *
In the context of thinking of one of the dominant concepts in money science called Monetary conditions, which is referred to as a standard called the standard number for those MCI terms (
-which calculates the linear compositions of a few of the financial market variables in all the economics and in particular the toxicity of the short-term toxicological interest and the local currency exchange rates on the issue of cash, it led me to think about the question of the analysis of monetary conditions and the behaviour of the individual In the unorganized market in Iraq (a market that has mostly been confined to the cash pool outside the formal or legal banking system and acts also in its conduct outside the Controls of monetary authority (and varies in levels of homogeneity with the regulated market under the direct control of monetary Authority.
Among the two markets, there are variations in monetary factoring towards a rising tide of speculative cash flows from outside the formal banking system. It is an established RIBA-based pattern that is known as leasing the currency or leased currency.
Renting money is an accelerated form of illegal cash factoring to justify the informal or irregular cash market. This is mostly related to the needs of speculative cash speculators, as the cost of leasing the money is linked to the a difference in exchange rates determined by the central bank's official central market and the parallel market for drainage.
The local currency rental rate (JD) today is about 15% per month, which is very high at the annual level of short-term toxicological interest. And about that there is a lot of money leased and its cost
The decisions that correspond to the condition of the price recession and the recession in the macroeconomics, this goes
Research by investigating the association that indicates the linear compositions of monetary conditions within the non-regulated monetary market in Iraq and its measure of exchange rates in the parallel or non-regulated market compared to the monetary structures in the organized market, particularly in the interest rate and exchange rate areas.
Cash speculation in the parallel exchange market adds daily returns averaging about 30 million dinars, for example, in the form of windfalls, for an investment of an amount equivalent to one billion dinars, or equivalent to 1 million duners, in the current exchange market. Here the question arises: how can we achieve new or updated principles to measure the monetary conditions of the unorganized cash market in Iraq?
The control of liquidity levels in the central exchange market requires the sustainability of liquidity and speed of cash turnover in the unorganized market of cash acquisitions.
The safety valve for this sustainability in liquidity flow is the high interest, which at the same time represents the cost of the flow of chunky liquidity transferred from the market to the formal market.
The question is: how much does the monetary authority have to bear the risk of a premium to absorb additional excess liquidity from the cash-lease crane, which accounts for about 77% of the total currency exported in Iraq?
What is the sacrifice of the homosexual ones in order to impose price fluctuations as a result of the rapid turnover or circulation of effective liquidity driven by RIBA-based interest rates?
At a time when the exchange rate and its stability is still the toxic installer in influencing the stability of the general level for the loss.
A. Cash leasing and compliance in monetary terms
The idea of the speed at which money is traded is at the rate at which the monetary unit is exchanged through different transactions or between a transaction and another, and how many monetary units are used for a given period of time. The rate of cash trading is also measured at the total level of gross domestic product (GDP).
Aesthetic to the cash show. No matter how fast the money is measured, it's a measure that fairly indicates that monetary growth leads to the transferred inflation. The speed at which money is traded is a phenomenon that is realized when the willingness of the individual to abandon it is growing either by disbursing money or by spending it. In contravention of this, any factors that call for cash (i.e., increased cash demand/as the inverse of the speed of the circulation of money) will this leads to lower speed in circulation, while most factors of expense or hypocrisy increase the speed of money.
The ALLFT in Iraqi economics there is an active phenomenon that prevails in the cash flow movement and affects the speed of the circulation of money by the unorganized organization that dealers, brokers and brokers are spreading the money leasing and promoting cash leased renting money from the customary law on these RIBA-based. of illegal innovations.
There is a need to finance the external trade of the Hawaiian sector, whose annual activities are equivalent to 40% of the annual non-oil aesthetic GDP. The need to finance trade and foreign affairs has been on the rise in the demand of the pro outside the banking system because of the failure of the said organ to grant cash for the Hawaiian sector which exceeds 5% of the GDP and only 12% of adults can get the cash From the regulated market due to the failure of the official banking system formal while more than 40% of adults resort to the unorganized market or non-official not formal to get their desired cash credit (and through the money leasing mechanism at exorbitant cost).
The cost of cash is estimated by Rental of cash in the non-regulated community at less than 15% per month as we said.
Thus, there is a very high rate of cash circulation, which is being pushed towards the development of a non-regulated organization accompanied by the cash leasing phenomenon of the chunky currency (i.e. high speed of the handling of the hoarder but with high legal risk the high speed at which cash is traded outside the banking system or the appearance of a cash request function For the last few.
With highly riba-based interest and on the basis of the cash leasing mechanism. In other words, the speed of the circulation of the money is stuck with high riba.
But the question remains, where is the increasing liquidity of the cash leasing process, and what is often the result of the employment without significant inflation due to effective monetary hypocrisy?
On the contrary, they are still constrained by high contractionary effects in terms of low growth rates, high unemployment and a significant price recession!
That there is a case of negative inconsistency in monetary terms, i.e. between the role of the Central bank window to sell the currency the Pleura (auction) as a monetary policy between the money lease market and the cash renting as a financing behavior practised by the private sector.
It boils down to the role of the Central bank window in Control of local liquidity levels, a monetary policy that is stability, sometimes leading to cash contraction and cash shortages if the development of liquidity minerals is not properly estimated or predicted. This is where the non-regulated market is activated by raising the cash in the dinar with a surplus generator in The derivative demand on the coin.
The demand is proportional to the dinar-financed currency
The surplus is the same as that of the dinar in the same exchange rate as the corresponding currency in the parallel sumach.
This is where the profits of windfalls exceed or cover the cost of monthly cash savings.
There is also a logical equation in the trapped and the non-regulated market ratios in the same place.
It is known that the lower the local currency exchange rate, the higher the interest rates.
Here, there is a combination of the formal market and the informal market in the regulatory system. The informal market drains monetary policy capabilities through the cash leasing mechanism. The value of bank interest is lower than that of interest in cash leasing, while the exchange rate of the dinar against the currency is higher in the regulated market
Compared to the parallel market. This situation represents the compatibility of the monetary conditions of monetary conditions inconsistency between the two markets (organized and non-regulated).
-2 monetary policy and cash-leasing predicament
It has become clear that there are two cash markets that are being done in the Silkettikan and their orientation with different monetary conditions or conditions, and in accordance with the common objection Rule .mutual exclusive is two overlapping markets, but the ones that correspond to the scorer and vision.
The cash-leasing phenomenon, where the liquidity of the cash flow is growing rapidly, is a source of surplus demand for the reserves of the central bank, which it means sacrificing one side of those papules to face effective liquidity that was inert or chunky, driven by the financial levers of the unregulated cash market. Its strength is a short-term high interest rate (RIBA).
Here the monetary policy pays an added price for the price shocks generated in the cash leasing market in order to maintain the exchange rate stability and counter the depreciation of the foreign dinar.
The sacrifice in the gardens is a result of the domestic liquidity surplus Its sudden shocks to the leasing of the currency are high risk premium, additional costs and monetary policy burdens. Instead, cash surpluses outside the banking system go to savings deposits that serve the real interest, turning into a cash surplus to be asked to cover the cross-borrowing of cash through windows and monetary policy portals.
Based on the foregoing, the central bank's monetary policy is to maintain the stability of the general level and reduce inflation using the currency as a defence or confirmer, my name is nominal anchor in the stability of the foreign value of the dinar, the breed (in the presence of two cash markets) has only prevented the cost And the unwanted darkness on the jeans, which is inversely proportional to the high rates of short-term toxic interest in the unorganized cash market (i.e., the cash-leasing leverages).
Down the general level of the loss (from the defense of the exchange rate Stable for dinar (the unorganized cash market signals that the positive real interest rate is: the rate of interest rate in the regulated market is minus the difference between the exchange rates of the dinar between the regulated and unregulated markets.
Cash leasing, its high leverage and the corresponding stability in The official exchange rate what is the expression of wat the risks that monetary policy defends from its criminal precautions to control liquidity levels that are thrown into cash leases as surpluses are absorbed by the windows of the central bank's monetary policy (auction).
-3 The Winter
The monetary conditions in the regulated market monetary conditions to maintain the stability of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar (despite the continuing manifestations balance-of-payments current account deficit (also followed by stable interest rates in the organized market, including the policy interest rate Cash (which reflects a positive real interest rate of about 6% per annum) is offset by different monetary conditions in the unorganized market, reflecting an excessively high the real, short-term interest in the non-regulated or illegal cash-lease market amounts to about 15% per month.
(This represents the rate of return from the Rabah of each dinar achieved by the parallel exchange markets, that is, resulting from the exchange rate difference of the dinar in the exchange market plus the monetary policy interest rate criterion.)
Therefore, if monetary policy were to adjust the interest rate and sign it upwards with a view to Attracting and sharpening excess liquidity from the unstructured cash flow as an alternative to its inflow to the central Monetary window, the I mean under the prevailing inflationary phenomenon only an economical contraction that is for real activity and deepening the monetary conditions monetary conditions market Non-structured or informal not formal money .market if monetary policy is to sacrifice the exchange rate and stabilize it towards the devaluation of the dinar and the creation of inflationary waves, the local currency rental market will fuel inflation from the
Maintaining a positive real interest rate is continually generated for inflationary expectations inflationary expectations maximizes the cost of managing monetary policy and drains the pleural herpes.
Therefore, there is no alternative to promoting medium-hybrid hybrid financial instruments (third-year) as central bank bonds being purchased through the cash market with the benefits of being repaid and paid at the intersection in the currency and at the exchange rate as an alternative to the chunky liquidity (whenever possible).
Such Financial instruments and policies policies help tools enable the imposition of behavior representing a state of consistency compatibility in monetary terms between the two markets (the organized cash market and the unorganized market).
That is by influencing the monetary behavior of the unorganized and penetrating the financial services Official hybrid the growth of the leased currency market and its adverse monetary conditions on the cost of the management of monetary policy.
With this monetary convergence between organized and non-regulated markets, monetary policy objectives are achieved in controlling excess liquidity levels and generating stable price forecasts without additional monetary authority costs.
Baghdad 1/September 2017
* Financial and advisory adviser to the Prime minister.
* * My appreciation to Dr. Ihsan Al-Maheen, President of the House of Trustees of the Wise who raised me a discussion for a few minutes about the growing phenomenon currency leasing in Iraq's markets, prompting me to analyze the growing phenomenon of leased currency in the circumstances of the recession.
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