BAGHDAD / Obelisk: It is likely that Iraq is increasing its production of oil in 2016, although less dramatic than this year, which will make the battle of market share raging among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Countries (OPEC) and their competitors from outside of a battle that was forced because of Baghdad to sell some Crude types of low price up to $ 30 a barrel.
Iraq's production jumped in 2015 by about 500 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to 13 percent according to the International Energy Agency, making Iraq a source of faster growth in production in the world and an important locomotive for increased OPEC production.
And mostly likely that this growth is moving towards recording a modest increase next year, which will ease downward on prices, which are approaching from the low levels recorded in 2009. The pressures but the lifting of sanctions on Iran or calm the violence in Libya, it is possible that OPEC production increases more if you do not reduce Saudi Arabia or other members of the Organization produced.
Said Eugene Lendl analyst at Jah.ba.sa Energy in Vienna 'production growth stability of Iraq or the height is limited, and will create some possibilities of price increases - if only to Iran last words ... Libya and other serious paper.'
It produces most of the southern Iraqi oil fields as the distance from combat zones in other parts of the country allowed to continue in production and make it registered a record volume of exports, most recently in July, when the sale of 3.064 million barrels per day abroad.
A source from the Iraqi oil sector, according to a Reuters report, and seen by 'Obelisk', that Iraq plans to export between three and 3.2 million barrels per day from the south in 2016, but declined to give a forecast for exports from northern Iraq, which resumed in late 2014 and increased to about 600 thousand barrels per day, in spite of tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region.
And surprised Iraqi production volume growth this year, many observers. In addition, any slowdown in 2016 and the volume of production growth in Iran do not miss the thought OPEC delegates who will attend the meetings of the Organization on the fourth of December to discuss production policy size.
One delegate said 'The Iraqis need to inform OPEC to plan for next year and the Iranians have not seen anyone to now on the quantities in which they pumped already ... the production of these two important Albuldbn for OPEC to take a decision.'
However, the delegate added that it is unlikely to reduce OPEC production .
Iraqi exports have fallen because of decades of wars and sanctions. The growth comes after investment from oil companies in the southern fields and the resumption of exports from the north.
South shipments jumped in June after the partition of Iraq crude into two types of Basra heavy crude and Basrah Light crude to resolve matters relating to quality. This allowed some companies such as Lukoil to increase production.
And works of other companies, including BP and Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Eni in the southern fields under the Services under which you get on a fixed dollar fee on production contracts.
Because of the fall in oil prices of more than 50 percent of the more than $ 100 a barrel in mid-2014 and the high cost of the battle waged by the Iraqi government against al Daash pay dues to oil companies it is now more difficult than it has to cut spending.
And reduced BP to develop Rumaila budget by $ billion to $ 2.5 billion this year as the company braced for the possibility of recording a significant increase in the production of Iraq in 2016.
Said Michael Townsend, head of BP in the Middle East 'is difficult to see a significant increase in production next year.'
Shell does not expect any growth in the Majnoon field, which holds the production of it where he said Atselar Chairman Martin and integrated gas operations in the company 'at the moment we look forward to stable levels of crazy.'
And others see executives working in southern Iraq also that production will stabilize in Iraq next year little changed, while some warn of falling production by the second half of 2017 due to lower investments.
And enjoyed Iraq with all what motivates to continue production at full capacity since the actual prices less of record crude prices. And at least the official price for the sale of Basra heavy crude of $ 10.40 a barrel for Brent crude for shipment in December. Sources say that the shipments are sold at a lower price dollar or two for the official selling price of no less than $ 30 a barrel.
Iraq and occupied the position of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as the second-largest oil exporter to Europe after Russia and Iran have already prepared a list of customers to buy its oil as soon as it lifts the sanctions, according to the International Energy Agency, which will remain under price pressure is likely.
The agency said 'That's why it is likely to increase price competition among producers.'
It is uncertain occurrence smooth progress in Iraq's exports. It is likely that the escalation of the conflict between Baghdad and Erbil on shipments coming from the north affects even though the supply has increased in spite of some sabotage attacks and tensions. Traders say that this growth may continue next year, from a purely technical terms.
He said Lendl 'away from Basra do not expect more than 3.2 million barrels per day of exports ... from the north. This is what surprises may come of it. '
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