Dr.. Fouad Abdul Mohsen al-Jubouri 46 2015-11-07
Euphrates Center for Development and Strategic Studies
The most prominent of the responsibilities of government is to draw the public policy of the State to reflect the economic orientation through the state budget preparation to reflect the overall economic activity of the state and the social and economic policies.
1. With regard to the state budget for the year 2015:
The amount allocated ((almost to the expenses of the financial year / 2015 119.5 trillion dinars. Distributed according to the following:
A amount (almost to the expenses of the investment projects 41.9) trillion dinars.
B amount of $ (77.5) trillion dinars almost ongoing expenses. Including: salaries of 26.35 trillion dinars, which represents 34% of total operating expenses at a rate of .. (2195) billion dinars per month.
(C) the amount of $ (125) billion dinars emergency reserve.
2. income earned up to 31.8.2015
Revenue generated up to 8-31 Amount (billion dinars)
Revenues derived from the sale of crude oil * 34963.9
Revenues derived from the sale of crude oil to refineries government 6679.9
Non-oil revenues generated under the 2185 budget
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* Assuming the number of Iraq's population of 36 million people and an average of six people per family, so the number of Iraqi families 6 million family: If we assume that the Iraqi family buys 2 gas bottle a month .. Thus, the revenue derived from the increase in the price of gas bottle 1,000 dinars is: 48 billion dinars for almost four months.
* Number of employees Iraq nearly 4 million employees and that the revenue derived from the income tax increase staff almost 1.0468 trillion dinars for seven months.
* The number of subscribers in the Zain network 11 million subscribers, and in Asia, 9 million subscribers, and the rest of the networks four million common .. If we assume that the subscriber uses a category .. 10,000 dinars per month, the revenue derived from the tax increase kart for sale Rtat equivalent: 144 000 000 000 dinars for almost three months.
Revenue is earned draw additional 1.2388 trillion dinars. Added to the oil and non-oil revenues accruing (43.8289 trillion dinars) shall be revenue generated up to 8-31 equivalent to 45.0677 trillion dinars.
What has been spent almost up to 8-31:
17 560 billion dinars, representing eight months' salaries (2195 ×
17 050 billion dinars, representing 50% of the rest of the operating budget for eight months and was funded by the Ministry of Finance and this more than the truth. (8 × 12 ÷ 50% × 51.15 = 26.35˗77.5)
4190 billion dinars, representing 10% of the capital budget funded by the Ministry of Finance yet. (Financed in the month of August) (41900 × 10%)
Total 38 800 billion dinars
Thus, the budget surplus equivalent to up to 8-31 (45067.7 --38,800 = 6.0677 trillion dinars)
3. The drop in oil prices:
First: if Iraq exported 3000000 barrels per day at a price of $ 40 a barrel Revenues from crude oil Source: 3000000 × 40 $ × 30 × 1168 Day Sarabv = 4.2048 trillion dinars per month
Second: The revenue earned from the sale of crude oil to refineries government
665 × $ 30 × 30 × 1168 Sarabv day = 699 billion dinars per month
Third, non-oil revenues under the budget:
30 × 56 $ × 3300000 832.5 = 1168 × 16% × billion dinars a month almost.
Fourth: Other revenues:
a. Revenues derived from the income tax increase staff: 130.8 billion dinars.
B. Increase the tax on the sale of Rtat: 50 billion dinars.
Thus, the total monthly revenue equal to: 5.9166 trillion dinars.
Any equivalent ratio: 2.6 to the total monthly salaries in Iraq. (2195 ÷ 5916.6)
4-surplus budgets for the years 2004-2013:
*** Iraq's total revenues for the years 2004-2013 was almost 796 trillion dinars.
*** Iraq's total expenses for the years 2004-2013 was almost 640 trillion dinars.
Thus, the total surplus for the years 2004-2013 roughly equivalent to 156 trillion dinars.
Are added and a surplus in 2014, which is equivalent to almost 16 trillion dinars.
For a total surplus of almost 172 trillion dinars.
Note that it is not the sale of oil between the real selling price and the estimated selling price in the budget calculation of the price difference.
5. diversify funding sources, the federal budget:
** The federal budget by 84% dependent on oil revenues resources of the total sources of funding. Which refers to the likelihood of increased risk whenever international oil prices for whatever reason fell was, as well as "all the threats that may affect the oil industry due to internal or external factors and then to increase imports versus exports. Which requires the diversification of sources of funding and a way that does not affect any source of those sources-when Alankhvad- on the state's ability to achieve its objectives depending on the rest of the sources as well as to give the active role of the private sector in economic and social development. This is done through the development of sectors of agriculture and manufacturing as well as other activities (tourism, air and ground transportation, hotels, Wealth fish, livestock, food products, income tax, domestic and foreign investment), in order to increase the proportion of its contribution to the outcome of the general non-oil revenues, which are Kdharurat strategy at the current stage to build an economic future more secure and more stable.
Iraq also possesses natural resources represented by:
a. Alhedrrukarboneh wealth (oil and natural gas and the accompanying free) estimates indicate the existence of 115 billion barrels of oil reserves and Moked (215) billion barrels of potential reserves, and about 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
B. Mineral wealth, particularly the sulfur found in huge quantities in Mishraq and phosphate area in Akashat and red mercury in the building .... and other minerals.
T. Agriculture availability of all basic necessities for the advancement of the agricultural sector, as well as human and material resources.
W. Article 27 of the Iraqi Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004, stipulates assume the central bank reserve management of the official foreign exchange reserves of the country, and passed to the bank to invest such reserves set of condition that ensures their liquidity without remember and achieve something of yield risk assets.
For the purpose of achieving economic reform has to be:
First: Without prejudice to the salaries of the staff in any way whatsoever because the contrary would lead to the lifting of the poverty level for non-real data about state employees showing the number of members of their families and the needs of the living base and the number of school students, including the number of children provide, and whether salary responsible for their living enough or not?
Second, hard work and the actor to find new sources of funding such as investing through the use of cash reserves resulting from the actual surplus in the budgets of 2004-2014.
Third, take advantage of modern farming technology to achieve self-sufficiency to reduce the large waste in hard currency through the import of all the needs of individuals in this area.
Fourth: the allocation of part of the state budget for investment real-which dates back to the country's resources Malah- in the areas of resources (building tourist hotels in the regions of the influx of visitors, buy trains and tour buses, increasing the number of passenger aircraft in the Iraqi s) as well as the production and export of gas.
Fifth: take legal action that you hear the Ministry of Finance from the sale of the dollar - which is obtained from the sale of oil V- at the auction, since the increase for the official exchange rate, which is obtained from the sale price at the auction of the state will provide significant resources. For example, if the export of oil by 3 million barrels per day at a price of $ 45 per barrel was the sale of oil revenues in the auction in the amount of 1190 dinars to the dollar, that would increase state revenues by (89 100 million dinars) Eighty-nine billion one hundred million dinars per month. [3 million barrels × $ 45 × (1168-1190) × 30 = Day 89.1 billion dinars, equivalent to (1.0692 million million) trillion sixty nine billion two hundred million dinars per year.
Sixth: the imposition of high duties on imported goods - which have the like of industrial products for agricultural or local - with control over price stability, because the lack of control over those prices convert those fees to indirect taxes burden the citizens.
Seventh: reduction of salaries and allowances of presidencies, deputies and deputy ministers, as those caused salaries to increase inequality and waste of public money. As well as reducing the number of Hamayatem by actual and necessary requirement.
Eighth: merge the ministries of nature and converged services, and to benefit from surpluses in new projects, so as to reduce expenses unexplained.
Ninth: activating the retirement law in the private sector to stimulate the transmission of redundant in the public sector to the private sector and to reduce public expenditure.
* Researcher at the center of the Euphrates Development and Strategic Studies
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