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(And an economic point of view): File gas and its impact on the Iraqi economy

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30/06/2013 (00:01 pm) - The number of readings: 127 - Issue (2831)
(And an economic point of view): File gas and its impact on the Iraqi economy
(And an economic point of view): File gas and its impact on the Iraqi economy

 d. Louay Khatib

In the twenty-sixth of the month of June 2013, the Egyptian president gave a lengthy speech in which he defended the "achievements" that achieved within a year of the date of receipt of the presidency, as he has justified هفواته the and كبواته due to the effects of the former regime and current opposition schemes according to the recipe. The hall crammed Bmanabarh of "Brotherhood", and loud cheers above and Tatar accompanied by warm applause in support of him has been extended talking for more than two and a half hours in anticipation of what will face the current system of demonstrations and public outrage opposition date set him on the thirtieth of the same month. I do not care speech Morsi, who like a lot of contradictions, but the energy file that touched him kicking off his term. He was the man in this regard important right, and that the important lesson of the Iraqi government and the House of Representatives of the Iraqi people, hoping to take him from the door of the advice and on the basis of "Happy of اتعظ without him and slit of اتعظ himself."
touched Morsi for decades to export gas concluded by his predecessor, has Explain briefly is in breach of how the previous governments proved the economic future of Egypt through the sale of Egyptian gas worth two dollars per unit energy without regard to the State's need to ensure energy security, what will face of inflation, population and economic expansion, where the imposition of haste and lack of wisdom in the decision to export gas to enter into contracts parallel after forcing Egypt legally to export, and then re-import gas to twelve dollars per unit energy which led to the creation of a trade deficit worth ten dollars per unit energy dependence on imported liquid fuels more expensive and Alaaty impact on the environment in addition to sizing the future economic development of the industry that rely on gas and its derivatives to a large country the size of Egypt. Then he stopped his words to the electricity issue suffered by the Egyptian people, attributing the cause to file commercial contracts for the sale of gas (controversial), knowing that the deficit of electric power in Egypt does not exceed 15%, according to official reports, compared to Iraq, which exceeded the deficit of electric power which this year 35% lower estimates with the imbalance in the justice electrical distribution locally, which exacerbated the controversy and anger in every summer more and more about this file vagus, and this needs to be an article independently to discuss the merits of foot-dragging and circumstances of attrition economic costs and the cost of the Iraqi state ($ 40 billion per year) due to lack Service industries multiple depends on energy security, according to the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which was published earlier this year, while Iraq is still burning gas in anticipation of Faraj of the project spiky injury tripping legal in the absence of competition and transparency.
fact that I do not have a description accurate file sale and export of gas Egyptian and scalable local industry, which the former regime through the shackle Egypt to long-term contracts and binding harsh conditions and without the ability to undo them or modify what the gas industry investments for the benefit of local communities. Vmadelh difference financial and lack of vision of the authors of the energy policy of Egypt in the previous era means one of two things only two, أحلاهما over, but fools or traitors.
on the twelfth of June this year, launched the Chancellery of the Prime Minister in Baghdad, the National Plan for Strategic Iraq's energy, which gained access to the axes. Will not touch to discuss the plan in full has commented on the media and a host of analysts and experts in detail and positive, as I've found the value and the Court, though the prospects for success is fraught with challenges and governed by the establishment of federal institutions and legal systems guarantors to achieve Ward Mali has more than six billion dollars in light of economic diversification sponsor remove Iraq from the economic rentier forthcoming. But the plan came bit late because of Iraq's commitment to sign oil and gas contracts long-term and that it had taken into account all the contracts oil with scenarios prepared in advance and the subsequent review of production levels.
referring to the executive summary of the national plan for energy, and I wanted to draw the attention of researchers to the portion of the file of industry-invasive, and included brief scenarios of gas production and the proportion of domestic consumption until 2030, indicating that the production capacity of the stomach to consume dry gas will rise to 82%, which is slightly lower compared to the study made ​​by the advisory to the Ministry of Electricity (Parsons Brinckerhoff) in 2011, which reaches levels of adoption of domestic energy consumption on the dry gas by 92%. Note that both percentages mean that the adoption of electric power production will consume between 7.5 to 8 billion cubic feet of dry gas (minimum) for the generation of 35 to 40 thousand MW, if we take the rate of electricity production efficiency up to one billion cubic feet gas per day Per five thousand MW electricity, and that this ratio does not stray from the indicators that we have reached in the Iraq Institute for Energy in 2010, which we published in several international conferences:
note that the need for Iraq's Kurdistan region in 2030 will reach 6,000 MW per day and these consume up to 1, 2 billion cubic feet of gas. It should be noted that according to the production rates of these, which is comparable to estimates of the national plan, but said Iraq would need to import half a billion cubic feet of natural gas to meet the local need in 2030, unless the Iraq operations exploratory major to double domestic production of natural gas and then provide surplus needed to export it another search.
witness of this reference is that the preliminary study prepared by Shell (Gas Master Plan), adopted by the Ministry of Oil in 2007 to develop a plan gas (ie, four years after the regime change), was talking about the need for Iraq to two billion cubic feet of gas per day, or a little more, and the rest is a surplus for the local need therefore advised plan Shell (note that the company's business interests in the investment of Iraqi gas before submitting its recommendations to the Iraqi government) to export the total gas production, and on this basis I headed the Iraqi government to sign joint strategic memorandum of cooperation with the European Union to supply natural gas to Europe, where it began negotiations with the Energy Commission of the European Union in 2008 and the signing of the agreement concluded in 2010. But worth mentioning that the oil ministry had checked the production rates after the completion of licensing rounds, the first and second (with respect to the associated gas, which is accounted for most of the national stockpile installer) taking into account the results of third round of licenses (for limited production of gas from three fields contracted) have reached the Oil Ministry to the need for Iraq to four billion cubic feet per day for domestic consumption only, and the rest is a surplus for export, noting that this percentage lower (50%) compared to recommendations made ​​by the adviser to the Ministry of Electricity (Parsons Brinckerhoff) in 2011 and the most recent recommendations of the Strategic Energy National. Thing thing is noteworthy, that the Ministry of Electricity had been determined before the 2008 import turbines that run on the fuel gas from the companies Siemens and GE for power generation of electricity, but the reluctance of the Ministry of Oil in accelerating investment of associated gas and its dependence on a single company, a company Shell (Her plan first) has another provision of gas to power plants as well as the reluctance of the Ministry of Electricity to attract investors electric power plants (Independent Power Producer - IPP) and the opposite of what happened in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which has provided electrical power to the provinces of the region using gas without interruption and the advancement of incident economy. Note that the IPP did not find a market attractive in Iraq (excluding the Kurdistan Region), the lack of 1 - Terms of saving fuel and 2 - Organization of pricing that did not strive Iraqi governments to solve since the change of regime in 2003 and until this time.
Unlike politics unconscious pursued by the former Egyptian regime, Saudi Arabia has pursued a completely different policy in the gas investment, which has twice the size of proven Iraqi reserves of natural gas and a quarter of the population Aura for a country the size of Egypt. It was a policy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and conscious distancing itself from the export of gas as a feedstock and tended to invest locally for the production of electrical energy and the development of local industries of petrochemical, fertilizer and chemical industries, aluminum and elegant furnishings and other heavy industries, even became a group of companies SABIC is one of the largest global producers and exporters of products which represents a gas in which a player central to up production to 55 million tons annually, with weighting to increase production to 130 million tonnes per year in 2020 as the global SABIC value has exceeded $ 95 billion. This and that the production capacity of Saudi Electricity has exceeded 47 thousand MW and will reach 75 thousand megawatts per year in the year 2017. It is worth mentioning that the SABIC was established in 1977 after just one year of the establishment of a petrochemical company in Basra (PC1) and a production capacity of less than Basra, while still PC1 produces less than half a million tons per year. Therefore, it is necessary to approach the Iraqi government to adopt a similar policy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to invest in full Iraqi gas locally and take advantage of its products and then export the surplus products without export of raw gas, because this policy will contribute to the transmission of the Iraqi economy from rent to diverse and thus multiple sources of income national security and increase the chances of renaissance for local employment and turn them into productive employment, with the prospect of Iraq's need for labor and imported supply the public and private sectors and mixed because of the large campaign reconstruction that Iraq must commitment to come back as a player regionally and globally, all of this may be the beginning through the adoption of gas as a key factor in the development of plans economic development (economic multiplier).
Iraq is in dire need of foreign investment and looks forward to a positive role by international companies but at the same time on the Iraqi state to take into account how to deal with contracts for the realization of the balance of trade with respect engagements on legal grounds without exposure to prejudice and imbalance The lag in the march. I say this with a conservatory severe contexts that have been followed in the boot of contracts concluded without the involvement of the provinces producing oil played an active role (and not in a pro forma), according to the text of the constitutional article 112, which obliges involve producing regions and provinces with the federal government in policy formulation, implementation and management based on the system of state and federal quo, Without achieving this condition is all oil contracts from the north to the south of Iraq in the forms of constitutional and thus producing provinces the right to review or veto legally Mahfouz no fading of limitations. But, have become all contracts Petroleum foregone conclusion and a reality we all have to deal with it positively and pragmatically, taking into account rationalization to save the rights and trade balance, and without creating any other problem you may encounter Iraq, especially as we had went out just from Chapter VII, which is heavier Iraq for more than two decades, because of policies reckless pursued by the previous regime.
My advice to the Iraqi government can be trusted on the rights of the Iraqi people and future generations without rushing in the mortgage economy and تكبيله through the signing of binding agreements for the export of gas because of any surplus Local (my time) without the readiness of infrastructure and investment projects in a timely manner, knowing that the contracts gas are usually long-term and binding (over 20 years) for association agreements Side complex may be with countries that have a relationship with Iraq, and this is the essence of the trap and signed by countries such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman, where persuaded some international companies to export gas "surplus "By investing huge sums in projects export giant without regard to the need for actual in the future because of population growth and promising investment opportunities that may generate on the peoples of those countries, imports of products and not given the limited export crude, pushing these countries to export its natural gas (although nose) and is in dire need him, to become today a net importer of gas foreigner more expensive than gas source into contracts yesterday, then the states gas exporter local at the same time (Net Importer) - an equation where the puzzles a lot more to it an easy solution, and Halim enough for him the signal.
Finally , I hope that rely Iraqi government strategic national energy realistically but with some revision conscious scenarios export gas, and away from the guidance urgency of some international companies, and to accelerate the establishment of institutions consuming gas and manufacture of its products and the development of legal frameworks necessary to establish federal institutions and independent First Oil and Gas Council Federal membership regulators, federal and local, which in turn will put federal policies and overseeing the implementation of plans of national energy and guarantee the rights of all, to preserve the entitlements of Iraq on the one hand and entitlements of investors, on the other hand, in the long run, without relying on a policy of random and improvised.
Chief Executive Officer of Iraq Institute for Energy - London

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