What is the year 2019 for Iraq?
Saturday 12 January 2019 54
Translation: Anis al-Saffar looking forward to what the year 2019 will carry for Iraq is like walking in the house of mirrors, the facts keep wriggling and the vision is distorted and walking in the wrong corridor may end up hitting a wall of glass.
Since 2003 there have been predictions of what will happen with the beginning of each new year, but few of those predictions were accurate, and the year 2019 would be as likely.
Too many variables, many ا and black swan swarms await the reckless prophet who will speak out. Even the United States, which is usually the easiest player to extrapolate, can no longer predict what it will members misconduct.
The president's "Donald Trump " Night-time trip on 26 December I made the first visit to US forces in the so-called "stupid Wars in the Middle East" for a three-hour meeting focusing on Syria, without leaving a significant mark in promoting goodwill with the new Iraqi government.
Demonstrations and violence
If Trump's actions are going to leave a trail anyway, many observers in the region believe that this effect will be a certain sense that Iraq, and its various concerns, will remain open to the disputants.
A year after the almost complete defeat of ISIS in Iraq, the country still suffers from scattered sparks carried out by remnants of its fighters or sympathizers, near a restaurant in Tikrit or a popular market in afar. In addition, the accumulated public discontent caused by the daily problems of the residents fuels protests accompanied by violence in the south.
As a result, the Iraqis, 16 years after what was described as the "liberation" war, have gained a degree of democracy but still suffer from a lack of basic services such as potable water, electricity, decent health care and job opportunities.
In September last month, a British journalist, Patrick Coburn, wrote that what she did was defeating "ISIS" was to make Iraqis turn their gaze into the dire conditions of their country: poor streets and poor conditions of bridges, hospitals and schools, as well as the electricity and water crises in the country Temperatures rise in summer to 50 degrees Celsius.
This view may be true.
One of the consequences of the campaign to uproot ISIS is that the country is tomorrow in need of billions to reconstruct its infrastructure, to inhabit its displaced and to heal the wounds of the victims.
Nevertheless, we believe neither Baghdad nor the international community has yet taken the initiative to address these major challenges. There is no doubt that "ISIS " has been defeated, but this does not put on the table or clean water in the wells or a roof over the heads of Iraqis.
In fact, the gains made by the movement of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in the last May elections have shown how ordinary Iraqis today (of different ethnicities and religious affiliations) are no longer indifferent to the vague dangers of their indifference to the availability of decent living, health and opportunities towards Better life.
The reports state that the Sadrist rule does not include only Shiite Iraqis, but also includes one year and two Christians who are disappointed in the situation and who are self-sufficient to identify themselves as Iraqis before anything else.
Their demand is to see an improvement in their living conditions and other personal considerations.
In addition to the protests in the south, there have been mounting calls for a change in Iraq's system of government from a parliamentarian to a presidential, the advocates of the presidential system assert that this system is capable of meeting the challenges, as a moderate, "strong man" will be able to tackle the problems of corruption and stagnation Bureaucracy, poor basic services and insecurity.
We talked a source closely related to the government: "Everyone is talking with fancy titles. Democracy. Innovation.. Press freedom. Otherwise, you will not find anyone willing even to try to address the feudal system, which represents the actual ground for everything that prevents a genuine civil society."
Reasons for hope and optimism
However, the space for hope remains wide.
Sixteen years after the United States-led invasion to displace a man who was not elected by a new generation to the polls, a generation that has not been known for much of its life other than wars, poverty and insecurity, but connected to the whole world through social media.
The children of this generation are well aware of their rights as citizens and know how the image of democracy looks when it does and pays off. That is why the protests and demonstrations that emerged as the birth of a civil society can be seen to be able to impose controls on his government.
One of the points of the last year was the emergence of new players who took the reins from the old guard, who was over the age of 70 years and who remained dominant on the scene in Iraq for decades, even while abroad. The chest is not more than 44 years old.
In northern Iraq, Kurdish voters also saw a decrease in old faces over the faces of children, siblings and siblings, including the 41-year-old, Barzani, and Najivan Barzani, 52. There was also a newly-emerging party with an appropriate name, "The New Generation", headed by Shesir Abdulwahid Qadir, who moved from the business world to politics.
Of course, it will not be accurate to contemplate the challenges that Iraq may face in 2019 to underestimate the Iranian influence, especially in light of the expected U.S. withdrawal from the scene.
What does the future have in store?
Shortly before the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, I visited the city of Erbil in northern Iraq, where the atmosphere was full of excitement and anticipation, and in the busy market I spoke to a vegetable seller and he said to me: "I hope to get Saddam, then the local government may turn a little into our plight."
The change in Iraq has been overturned in all dimensions of the word, in the standards of life, economic opportunity, governance and external influences, and even in changing the sense of the meaning of being an "Iraqi".
The situation of Iraq has turned upside down many times over the last 16 years, and the current year will be another year of those, years of instability and anxiety.
Any attempt to predict precisely how the status of Iraq during 2019 would be clumsy folly, and I wonder with myself, see what the vegetable seller will say that day after sixteen years.
Tanya Gaodsuizian/About the East I Medal news