War of currencies .. The most serious aspects of soft economic war
2018/10/04 11:03 am
States are now engaged in an open arena with different tools to gain or strengthen their regional and global roles in conflict.
But the tools of war today are almost more dangerous than the previous instruments, being soft tools.
The hard war that the world has witnessed throughout history, almost the only concept of war in the popular subconscious of our societies, has been serious and still, but known in terms of the conflicting parties, limited in terms of the arena of conflict and confined to players in their battlefield.
Yet, despite its devastating effects on societies, they have not been at the level of danger posed by soft war, and everyone is in an open arena of multifaceted conflict.
Economic warfare is one facet of soft war. In which States seek to arm each other through various economic weapons, which usually affect the world economy.
Day after day, the impact of this war has increased for many reasons.
A complex and interdependent world where there are no longer distances between the market sides under modern communication technology, and its many positive and negative effects.
The main problem is the ability to adjust results. It is one of the serious aspects of this technology and its effects on the multiple facets of soft war, including economic ones.
In addition to the adoption by States today of it as an essential means of conflict.
Because economic war has many tools, today one of its most modern instruments stands out.
Currency War is a cold economic war run by big economic players. A country (or a union of countries with a single currency) uses monetary policy by intervening in exchange and exchange markets to reduce the competitive power of other countries.
Another indirect aspect of this war is that officials have declared through the media about policies against a country or warning of future situations that might devalue the target country, affecting its currency in the markets.
Here, the Chinese-American model is the most dangerous of the current economic wars, which according to observers will cause a shift in the global economic system.
The term first surfaced in 2008 in the book "The War of Currency" by Chinese researcher Sinog Hongping of Chinese origin.
The book was released before the financial crisis and the writer talks about the American efforts and through the currency war to hit the economic growth of emerging countries, specifically China.
During the month of April, China announced its intention to devalue its currency to counter the US-Western trade war specifically against its exports. Which makes the value of their goods cheaper than other goods and increases their competitiveness.
Some may be surprised by this approach, but currency devaluation is an important story.
Since 2016, the US Treasury has been closely monitoring the performance of countries that are key trade partners towards the US currency.
This indicates that the American trend toward controlling the behavior of trading partners is back more than a decade and a half.
It has nothing to do with the current American administration, since America's political power depends on the economy.
Washington's main trading partners include China, Japan, South Korea, India, Switzerland and Germany.
These countries have the largest amounts of the US currency as a cash reserve. Which makes it able to exert pressure on the dollar. Which could affect the business situation of America, which according to reports 2017 of the deficit of more than 800 billion dollars in its trade balance of 380 billion dollars to China.
Global rams continue to fight in the economic war between countries, with many current examples of this conflict (between America and the European Union, America and China, America and Russia, America and Iran).
The American common denominator seems clear.
Here, it can be bet that the countries competing with Washington in its economic struggle are feeling the burden of American fiscal policy and its damage to the global economy, where Washington exports its economic problems to the rest of the countries.
But in order not to stay out of sight, the global scene of the current conflict between America and China will inevitably affect the global economy.
These two countries have about 46% of world trade.
Here our societies are facing a war that can only wait for results. Any global economic weight.