Oil market developments and views of multiple and contradictory matter
Monday 11/16/2015 22:59
/ Books: Walid Khoury / Baghdad news
resulted in the deterioration of the price of oil since mid-2014, and uncertainty about future prices in the near term, to the emergence of multiple and contradictory points of view. There are studies investment banks Western Grand predicted earlier price of $ 100 a barrel and to continue increasing the price to $ 200, which is likely now deteriorating prices to $ 20, and there are the views of the major producing countries such as the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, where he used Alnaftyon officials officials not to declare forecast all prices. In a speech during the round table VI of the Ministers of Oil and Energy for Asia, which was held in Doha last week's meeting in collaboration with the International Energy Forum, explained Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia, and Saudi viewpoint about what happened in the markets Finally and expected in the future. Saudi Arabia believes that the key factors that must be taken into account, is the long-term oil trends (supply and demand). Votrouhh Riyadh is that the available data indicate that "the long-term fundamentals of the oil sector remains strong and coherent." In comparison with the basics during the Great collapse of prices in 1985 ranged global consumption volume then about 59 million barrels per day, and was the main reason for the deterioration of prices at the time the unused production capacity, which amounted to a record above 10 million barrels per day, or about 17 percent of consumption Universal. The greater the volume of production capacity untapped, large negative pressure on prices. In 2015, the estimated oil consumption rate of about 94 million barrels per day, while the spare capacity, mostly in Saudi Arabia, estimated at about two million barrels per day, which means that spare capacity amounting to two percent of the total global oil consumption. These constitute the meager unused production capacity, according to Prince Abdul Aziz, "an important and essential to maintain the stability of oil prices and the global economy." There is a change in the fundamental factor, is the growth of oil demand to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2015, in contrast to the eighties, when it fell demand by more than 2.3 million barrels per day between 1980 and 1984. But there is a negative indicator in the current non-recurrence of the large growth in Asian markets during the last three decades, the growth of demand for oil has become moderate as a result of efforts to improve energy efficiency and the use of alternatives to oil. However, Prince Abdul Aziz added, the oil industry "should not lose sight of the fact that increasing the scope of globalization and industrialization, urbanization and rapid development", these factors depends on energy, and will continue to reduce the poor class size, increasing the middle class size from the current level of 1.8 billion people to 3.2 billion by 2020, then to 4.9 billion by 2030, and to the continent of Asia will be the largest share of this population increase. The new middle class will consist of young people that are looking to increase their consumption. This should help the younger demographics, in addition to raising income levels, the rising trend in energy demand. Put this hypothesis about the future of the Saudi oil industry, two questions on the observer. First: in the long term, what are the dimensions of technical developments on the oil industry? The market is the main oil is the transportation sector, but there are constant attempts to develop hybrid vehicles to reduce gasoline and diesel consumption. The second is: What is the economic volatility in emerging countries in the progress of oil demand effect? These fluctuations, such as those now taking place in China and Brazil, contraction of global oil demand and thus adversely affect the prices. Therefore, Despite the fact that the increase in demand from emerging countries has helped and will help a lot in improving the global markets for the benefit of producers, the rest of the oil industry threatened by economic fluctuations in emerging countries, and the best example of this is the oil market crisis now. For the industry's oil requirements, especially the availability of a reasonable price for oil production . Prince Abdul Aziz said: "demonstrated the rapid response of the oil industry, witnessed what the market at the moment of the fall in prices, the sustainability of investments and increased production can be achieved at any price. With that many and plentiful oil resources in the ground, it is not technical and human resources required for the development of these resources as well. " Tenor say that the oil industry affected by the sharp fluctuations in prices, "has been canceled during 2015 about $ 200 billion of investments, and operating in the energy companies plan to reduce their investments for 2016, by between three and eight percent. Well, producing countries, and under increasing financial pressure, reduce their investment in the energy sector and the decline development plans in this regard. " This will "investment expenditure was reduced to a large and long-term effects on the future supply of oil ... has got to postpone or cancel dedicated to the production of about five million barrels per day for the projects." The result is that after three years of positive growth, it is expected "that supply-producing countries from outside goes down OPEC in 2016, after only a year of reduced investments. After 2016, it will receive reduced supply from producing countries outside OPEC at a faster pace, because the cancellation and postponement of investment projects, their impact on future supplies will be shown, as will diminish gradually the impact of investments in the field of oil production, which took place over the past years. " This means that it is possible to improve the development of markets starting from 2016 due to the low level of supply, which in turn will lower the high level of commercial stocks. Thus, Saudi Arabia confirms once again, the basic starting points for oil policies, at a time in contact with the rest of the producing countries within the "OPEC" on or off before the next ministerial meeting of the Organization "OPEC".
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