Friday, October 1/23 Oct. 2015
Still worsen the financial crisis experienced by Iraq, which reflected the negative effects on all aspects of life, particularly the economic reality. When the economy of the country suffers the case of total collapse that leads to Shell all aspects of the state, here comes the leading role of the planning process - predicting that can stop this degradation put the immediate, medium and long-term plans and follow closely aphid.
But, alas, confined Activity Planning of the Ministry of Planning, in the past decade, the declaration of the percentages of the population who are below the poverty line, with the poverty line, unemployment, the cost of the food basket ... did not take preventive measures and Aanmaiah the Iraqi economy because of Ahadath, especially in a period of high oil prices, which was able to make a development spending, but that was corrupt it is increasing greed to steal public money, so formed a direct correlation between the increase of financial resources and high rates of corruption.
The concerned party planning process to predict vary from country to country, in some countries there are top state planning apparatus, and entrusted the task of planning the Ministry of Economy others, and in the third the Ministry of Planning »Iraqi situation». Therefore, I will later term (planning - the economy).
Preparation of plans and forecasts is a complex process, in which the elements are connected with each other to predict the scientific phenomenon to those or other economic phenomena and take planning solutions.
Determined by the system and periods of preparation of plans predictions of economic development - Social by the state.
The basis for the preparation of plans annual predictions, is: National Strategy for Social Development - Economic medium term; the programs and decisions of the government and the important economic trends of the development of the President. In those documents, the main objectives are being installed and turned the economy for future issues and formed his model.
Segmentation can work in the development of the plan to predict the group stages following:
The first phase - the analytical and scientific - research, organizational and methodological work;
Phase II - Preparation imagine predict social development - economic;
The third stage - the preparation of the draft plan to predict;
The fourth stage - the study of the draft plan to predict in the Council of Ministers and specialized committees, and the ratification of the social development indicators - economic in general meeting, which includes the three legislative, executive and judicial authorities;
In the first phase, the analytical work required to perform complex analysis of economic processes and phenomena - social, estimate Marital status - economic conditions, and set the level of development and the results of reforming the economy. In order to conduct analytical work, the data used for a previous stages and the data expected implementation of the plan under way to predict. In the process of analysis are evaluated: the reality and effectiveness of the plans previous forecasts; changes that have been implemented economic institutions (impartiality of sexual and process customization, visualization development, organization Allaaankara, investment support, etc.); development trends and the mechanism of organizing sectors and effectiveness; the emergence of deviation from the predictive macroeconomic indicators .
The scientific research and regulatory work boils down to in the systematic search for ways developed to predict, and the preparation of forms of research on macroeconomic forecasting, and the formation of the scientific methodology of the methods and methodological recommendations for the prediction of important indicators and ratios for the economy. Executive and be the main actors of this phase of the Supreme State Devices (Central) for planning, scientific research institutions and organs of government statistics.
In the second phase, the Ministry of (Planning - Economics) and in cooperation with other management devices prepare imagine predict socio - economic development. The perception given estimate socio - economic situation, and the appointment of the main objectives, and is being provided scenarios for economic development and suggestions for economic policy and the system of government regulation correction. The methods conceptual conceptual to achieve the objectives require such trends structural shifts, such as the trend towards use possible maximum production capacity - technical resources; create and support? Numeih projects and sectors of high technology; securing the priorities of government support for sectors with a rapid return to operational funds; accelerate the development of production for the purpose of Export and import it needs local manufacturing; increase the production of products from local materials and raw materials and processed further; increase food production by expanding the high competitiveness of the agricultural products industry; the development of high technologies effective and ecologically clean production of food commodities; the use of modern technical methods to save, transfer and treatment and packaging of agricultural products; renew and diversify complexes construction projects for the purpose of securing the need to build housing and other priority directions for the development of the economy, and the export of products and services for construction complexes.
The calculations predict perceptions bear a guiding character and realized in several forms inner circle of macroeconomic indicators necessary. When perform calculations, being to extract several groups of mutual correlation of the indicators: price and currency exchange rate; indicators of the overall supply and demand; the balance of payments; financial indicators and cash loans.
The cases the main scenarios predict social development - economic, The Report by the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, Ministry of Labour, the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations (or the Ministry of Economy / Department of Foreign Economic Relations as is the case in some countries), the Intergovernmental Committee Alگmark, the Ministry of Resources and the natural environment (in some countries there is a special ministry for the environment), government organs and the Supreme Administrative areas.
The third phase associated with the preparation of the draft plan to predict the appropriate year. The Ministry (Altakotait- Economy) prepare a plan to predict from major cases to predict perceptions, rates and trend indicators provided, as well as the proposals of the ministries and agencies of the administration regions. The Ministry of Finance data on the financial resources and the approximate budget of the state, and proposals in the area of taxes and other tools organization. The Ministry of Labour and Social minute show rates which include minimum consumer budget and other necessary data. Explains the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the quota for the extraction of natural resources, and provides suggestions for Ahraat nature conservation and environmental rates.
At this stage to predict the formation of the plan, when it is taking suggestions and other senior management organs of government, head of the importance given to the balance of indicators. Just as significantly expanding concrete composition of the chapters of the plan forecasting, as well as expanding the amount of the studied indicators.
At first, the predictive signs of prices account (abstract and the main groups of goods), the currency exchange rate, macroeconomic indicators and ratios necessary, control and auditing social and environmental levels. At that point, data movement occurs in the process of making the calculations indicators installed direction of the overall summary indicators to the overall indicators of resources and overall functionality, and then to the sectoral indices. When receiving suggestions from senior government administrative organs and regions, the data traffic in the opposite direction, I mean, of the sectors to the overall resources and the overall functionality and thus to the overall indicators of the national economy. Indicators consensus by repeating several times achieved.
Through the Ministry of (Planning - Economics), Taataan those indicators, such as gross domestic product (n m c) structure, predictive signs of prices, range of other indicators that are the basis for the preparation of the state budget and the main directions of monetary policy loans. During the preparation and audits to predict, correct perform appropriate economic measures used by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank in the stomach by them documents. The supreme executive power devices and the owners of government orders set the size of the funding for the completion of government programs to buy products for government needs, and provide orders to the Ministry of projects (planning - Economy) and the Ministry of Finance.
It is possible that the two ways to assess and demonstrate the economic indicators are located. In the first method, predictive analytical calculations are used, and the correct indicators achieved only with the intention of taking into account the economic entities. This method ensures producers to set socio - economic development, taking into account the specific economic conditions in advance. In this case, the need for deep analysis and forecasting the correct and reliable for the development of the national economy require. The second method is based on the faith and determination of economic entities indicators. The first method is used mostly in the preparation of the perceptions of the annual forecasting stage, and the second is used to form an enlarged and detailed plan for the prediction of shape.
The legal basis for the preparation of plans to predict, is a records (documents) legislative and normative. Those records contain the initial schematic form and organization to prepare forecasts and government programs for economic development - social system of the country.
In the fourth stage, the submission of the plan to predict socio-economic development carried out by the Ministry of (Planning - Economics) to the Council of Ministers for consideration, and after discussion and scrutiny of separate standards, sent to the head of state to examine them. At the same time being considered in the state budget and the main directions of monetary policy loans. Involved in the process of completing the documentation completed by redundancy group, the Ministry of (Planning - Economy), Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and the Supreme State organs and management areas. Evidence is achieved and the link between the plan indicators? Forecasting economic and social development on the basis of existing accounts predictive analytical system, which includes succession and mutual correlation between the Ministry of Economy and other management and hardware departments.
After perusing the separate indicators, be approved on the state budget, and the plan to predict socio-economic development of the country and for the year occasion. For the purpose of ensuring implementation of the plan and predict the budget, the Council of Ministers and other organs of the administration to implement appropriate controls and procedures.
Through what I said earlier, you taken the Iraqi Ministry of Planning entrusted with the role, and has implemented though which I referred part ...!?. The irony, said that talking about the Iraqi economy and related, but there are no ministry dealing with it, and I mean specifically the Ministry of Economy !.
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