Vitol: Oil will find it difficult to overcome the level of $ 60 a Briml until the end of 2016
Baghdad - INA / believes Vitol, the largest oil trader in the world, that crude will find it difficult to overcome the level of $ 60 a barrel next year as the return of Iran's production of the market and possibly lead to the Libyan exacerbate the effect of slowing global demand.
And the price of oil came down by half over 12 months ago, due primarily to unprecedented levels of production from a number of major countries exporting crude as well as slowing demand from China and other consumer commodity such as Brazil and Russia.
He said Ian Taylor, chief executive of Vitol, the company expects growth in world oil demand by 1.35 million barrels per day in 2015, down from 1.7 million in the current year.
Low oil prices encouraged refiners to reach record levels run, but this was not enough to absorb the surplus in the market, so the price settled below $ 50 a barrel in most of the second half of this year periods.
Taylor predicted consumption growth in China next year, but it is less likely that the pace of global demand growth from the levels witnessed this year.
He asked in the initial annual summit Reuters Commodities "Do we get to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2016? No, I do not think so, and this is one of the reasons for concern. As we got (the growth of) 1.7 million barrels per day in 2016 we can reach $ 60 a barrel easily. Do you expect a big up next year? I would be surprised if we passed a little below $ 60 by the end of 2016 ".
It expects the International Energy Agency demand growth by 1.21 million barrels per day in 2016.
Taylor ruled out that the result of the OPEC meeting in early December / December of any change in the position of the organization aimed to maintain its market share by pumping record amounts of oil. The strategy led to the worsening of oversupply in the global market.
Taylor said, "I do not expect that, but certainly would not bet too much on it. Still possible, but it should be reduced Arabia 500 (thousand barrels per day) for a real shock hitting the market somewhat. "
And what's more puzzling initial trade in goods companies how fast Iran return to international markets when international sanctions lifted them.
Officials in the sector and agree that Iran's exports will rise between 300 and 500 thousand barrels per day by next spring.
Taylor felt "Sidor struggle to win market share, particularly in Asia and the Middle East to some extent. It would be difficult to sell this oil (Iranian). I think it will depend largely on the extent of the decline in US production then. "
And incurring producers of shale oil Alomiecki heaviest losses in the war waged by OPEC maintained its market share over the past year. It is expected to announce that the United States has the largest production cut at all in November.
The danger to the balance in the market that the vacuum left by the decline US shale oil production can be quickly blocked by Iran and Libya, which produces 400 000 barrels per day, which represents a small fraction compared to the peak recorded in 2011 ago when reached 1.6 million barrels per day.
Taylor also asked "Is the market will let room for Iran? Probably yes, but I do not think the market can give her room at the same time to increase the production of Libya to lesbian or tripled. One of the other reasons that cause great concern. You may restore Libya (production) between 300 or 400 thousand barrels easily If Iran added 500 thousand barrels, Libya 400 thousand barrels while declining US production by one million barrels will come back to the starting point and for this reason I do not think that the market will go up a l
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