Buyers are betting on increased oil production in the coming years, enough to service its debt Baghdad easily.
Despite the war being waged against Iraq militants organizing the Islamic state and the fall in oil prices that has plagued public Bmalith, still the country can rely on oil reserves to attract buyers to the first of publications of international bonds in nine years.
Last week, Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari said that the central government is discussing with Citibank and Deutsche Bank version potential for dollar bonds worth five billion dollars for five years to help them bridge the budget deficit.
It is believed a lot of fund managers that Iraq will fall short of selling such a huge amount of bonds at once especially as he did not get a credit rating from one of the major agencies. And obtain a credit rating could take months.
It is true that the bond support specific oil revenues will boost investor demand but the government did not say they would do so may refuse to handcuff her hands in this way.
So may be a smaller version put forward in the coming weeks, perhaps between $ billion and two billion.
But there is no doubt that Iraq still can enter the international debt market whenever he pleases. Oil Vahtiatath very huge and plans for the production of this oil is very ambitious as to make it attractive market for funds wanting exposure to political risk versus reap high returns.
Iraq has increased the second largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production to 3.4 million barrels per day in January from 3.05 million barrels a year ago.
Baghdad has said it aims to raise the total capacity to between 8.5 million and 9 million barrels per day by 2020.
This goal may be overly optimistic in light of security concerns, poor infrastructure and a lack of liquidity and water. But the huge oil fields in Iraq, located in the southern region controlled by the Shiites to make them immune to the organization of the Islamic state is relatively attacks.
The bet buyers of Iraqi bonds that production will increase in the coming years, enough to service its debts Iraq easily even if it is fully implemented expansion plans.
Said Brian Carter, director of the Governor at Acadian Asset Management in Boston, "the aspirations of the Iraqi oil production and high availability of a positive catalyst for the Iraqi debt."
Trading in the secondary market refers to the Iraqi bonds are denominated in dollars maturing in 2028 to restore investor confidence in Iraq somewhat after Thavthm on sale late last year with falling oil prices.
The yield on bonds jumped to a record high of 10.49 percent in mid-December from 7.2 percent in September, but then came down to 8.54 percent.
There are several factors behind this recovery.
Iraqi government forces have made some gains in the face of the organization of the Islamic state over the past few months, Baghdad is not directly exposed to the risk.
After reaching Brent crude to $ 45 a barrel of crude rose above $ 50 a barrel.
And put Zebari complex plan to address the projected deficit of $ 21 billion in this year's budget.
The minister plans to take many actions, including the imposition of taxes on imports of cars, mobile phones and cards provide two billion dollars by reducing the rewards of government employees who earn big salaries and collect $ 1.8 billion using SDRs for Iraq from the International Monetary Fund.
If these steps have enabled the government to meet its obligations and increased oil production will be more of the state of public finances in the event of a lot better in a few years.
Iraq currently earns about $ 50 million a year from its oil exports. If oil prices stabilized, the production growth rate of only 50 percent Cedar additional revenues of approximately $ 25 billion, enough to cover the deficit in the budget entirely.
Says Kevin Daly, director of the Governor in Aberdeen Asset Management The bonds that Iraq intends to put forward would be attractive if involved a return around nine percent, and for ten years.
"There will be a demand on Iraq, but certainly will increase if they (the Iraqis) a credit rating."
And the relationship between the Iraqi traded bonds and other emerging markets are very weak, including Iraq makes an attractive investment market for some money, especially with the approach of raising US interest rates, which adversely affects the emerging markets in general bonds.
Fund managers noted also that the Iraqi traded bonds attractive price compared with dollar bonds due in 2023 to Nigeria, which is facing major political and security problems but are traded bonds yield at least 165 basis points from their Iraqi counterparts.
Said Sergei Dirgachev a conservative manager for emerging market debt at Union Investment in Germany Brivivondz The great chances of recovery of oil prices is very small while the chances of Iraq eliminate the militants to organize the Islamic state almost non-existent.
But he added: "In times of very low returns, investors are looking for credits with an adequate return."
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