After a contraction of 2% in 2014, and the budget deficit expected to rise to 12% this year from 3% last year.
Moataz Mohamed / Anatolia International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for the growth of the Iraqi economy to 1% during the current year, the forecast, issued last January, a growth of 2.5%, in line with current expectations recent government estimates of the Central Bank of Iraq. He estimated Fund report issued Thursday, the Iraqi economy to achieve a contraction of 2% in 2014, which was the first contraction of the economy since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, compared to his estimation achieve a contraction of 0.5% in the report issued by the beginning of the year. Fund said in a report on the occasion of the conclusion of the Article IV with Iraq consultations, obtained by Anatolia, a copy of Thursday, the forecast indicate an increase in Iraq's oil exports in 2015 to 3.1 million barrels per day, from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2014. The Fund as high deficit budget to 12% of GDP. The IMF report said that the Iraqi authorities to take proactive steps to address the dual shock that hit the country's economy is strongly represented in the control of the organization, "Daash" over large areas of the territory of Iraq and the collapse of oil prices. And met with the IMF mission in the period between 6 to March 15 / March this Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, and Oil Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq on the relationship, and a number of officials in the oil, trade and electricity sector. Fund pointed out that the control of the organization Daash on areas of Iraq, did not stop the expansion of the Iraqi oil sector, which is expected to exports of oil to rise during the current year, helped by the oil agreement signed in the past year with the North County. On June 10, 2014, the organization Daash dominated the city of Mosul, Nineveh province before it expands its control over large areas in the north, west and east of Iraq, as well as the north and east of Syria, and announced in the same month, the establishment of what he called the "Caliphate State", but the areas central and southern Iraq's oil-rich are still far from trouble spots. Fund estimated in the report obtained by the agency Anatolia, shrinking the economy of Iraq, which come 95% of its income from oil revenues, estimated at 2% in the past year and is expected to recover this year, pointing out that the rate of inflation in the outside areas that are not controlled by organization "Daash" less than 2% by the end of 2014, but the rate may rise after activating the tariff law which imposes high duties on imports. The IMF said that the Iraqi Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves fell from $ 78 billion at the end of 2013 to $ 66 billion at the end of last year due to lower oil revenues and rising imports. Iraq relies on oil imports to finance 95% of the budget, the country exports about 2.5 million barrels per day of production close to 3 million barrels per day, with expectations to increase production to 4 million barrels per day and exports up to 3.3 million barrels, the Iraqi government relies on oil contracts to raise the country's output of crude to around 8 million barrels per day in the next few years. IMF report said that external shocks accompanied by spending on security and humanitarian crises requirements, formed a pressure on the financial performance of the country, pointing out that the lack of adoption of the budget in 2014 led to contain spending at less than that experienced in the 2013 levels. Iraq has yet to approve the budget in 2014 because of disagreements between the political blocs on the terms and clauses contained in the budget bill, and the worsening violence after the invasion of the organization of the Islamic State "Daash" to the north and west of the country. And as the IMF, the report obtained by the agency Anatolia, the deficit in the Iraqi budget through 2014 at 3% of GDP, compared to 6% in 2013, pointing out that this decline was partly due to investment spending deferred, and stop budget payments to the territory of northern Iraq, and alluding to the accumulation of debts owed by foreign oil companies. Fund noted in his report that the deficit was financed mostly through domestic borrowing from state-owned banks. The IMF said that the 2015 budget assumes the arrival of oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day at a price of $ 56 a barrel, pointing out that the budget includes an increase taxes on non-oil sectors and strives to contain spending, pointing out that in spite of this and because of the significant decline in oil revenues, the budget faces a shortfall of up to 12% of GDP. The IMF report said: "In light of more conservative assumptions about the price of oil, and taking into account the payments from outside the budget for international oil companies, the deficit may be up to a much higher level." Fund pointed out that Iraq needs more fiscal control measures, particularly with regard to revenues and standards of spending, so as to contain the deficit in 2015 at disproportionate levels with funding constraints, and ease the pressure on the government-owned banks, and the tightening of domestic demand in order to harmonize the decline in foreign exchange reserves. The IMF said that the foreign exchange market in Iraq remained stable over the past year after a number of steps taken by the Central Bank to liberalize the market, as the parallel market spread of the currency to 3.5% of the total volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market by the end of 2014. The rate has dropped, the IMF said that the Iraqi government should Taaad CBI sales ceiling evaluation of the dollar, and the system of collection of customs duties through commercial banks, pointing out that these measures restrict the infusion of foreign exchange in the Iraqi economy and led to the arrival of the parallel market currency (black) to record levels in recent weeks. Central Bank of Iraq and held six auctions a week from Saturday to Thursday for the sale of foreign currencies, so as to provide dollar liquidity to the local market, and was the official price for the sale of Bank of dollars to domestic banks and exchange offices in 1166 dinars. The bank lowered its sales from the dollar to $ 75 million a day in the current year, from $ 250 million a day in the past. The Fund noted that the achievement of a comprehensive and diversified economic growth in the medium term in Iraq, also depends on a wide range of reforms that include state-owned companies, and the energy sector, and the labor market and improve the business environment and governance. Article IV of the Agreement Establishing IFAD, that the Fund shall conduct annual bilateral discussions with Member States, which focuses on the macroeconomic policies of countries. - Bağdat
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