- Published in 12/09/2014
In the second of December 2014, it was announced in Baghdad on oil agreement, reached between the negotiators of the Federal Government, headed by Oil Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and negotiator for the provincial government, headed by Mr. Nechirvan Barzani, Prime Minister. And issued a brief statement saying that Iraq's oil is for all Iraqis, and that the provincial government is providing at least 250 thousand barrels per day (b j) to the federal government for the purpose of export. The agreement also includes the export of 300 thousand b j by the federal government of the province of Kirkuk oil fields. Consensus was also reached on the allocation of a percentage of the federal allocations ground forces to the peshmerga, by population. It is clear that the announcement only Bzkralkhtoot broad agreement. The full text of which has not published until now. But the radio and published statements, can clarify the most important points of agreement as follows: that the federal government has agreed to re-launch the region's share of the annual federal budget, amounting to 17% of the net budget, ie after deducting security allocations and projects of public interest of Iraq in general. In addition, the federal government agreed to exempt the territory of sovereign expenses, meaning that the share will be 17% of the total (not net) annual budget. He also agreed to pay and allowances of the provincial army salaries (Peshmerga), without being linked to the federal leadership. Thus, the new region's share is more than the old share by 6% -7% of the total budget. Assuming an annual budget of $ 100 billion, the new region's share is more than the old by 6.7 billion dollars. Note that the percentage of the region's population, according to the Ministry of Planning records an estimated 12% of the total population of Iraq.
In contrast, the province approved the production and transport of a total of 550 thousand barrels per day, of which 300 thousand barrels per day from the Kirkuk fields, and at least 250 thousand barrels per day from the fields of the region, be transferred to the two sides of the Turkish port via the system transport in the region and across the Iraqi-Turkish line, so that the SOMO exported for the federal government.
It is the interview conducted by the Iraqi Oil Report Bulletin (Iraq Oil Report) with Mr. Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Finance, we can add the following:
1. The Iraqi negotiator did not raise the issue of Kirkuk oil fields administration, did not ask whether the administration will revert to the federal government or not? Note that the Kirkuk fields are fields of "current", and that the fields are "current administration" is the competence of the federal government in coordination with the Government of the province produced, in accordance with Article (112 I) of the Constitution. This was the case in so far as the Kurdish army occupied Kirkuk last July.
2. has not been addressed to the fate of oil in excess of the committed rates. Iraqi negotiator did not ask whether that delivers oil to the Federal Government or issued by the province to their account? Note that under Kurdish officials statements, it is expected that the export capacity through Turkey gradually rises to one million barrels per day at the end of 2015 and that the decrees issued by the province, the Kurdistan fields and fields of Kirkuk, now estimated at about 350 thousand barrels per day, of which about 250 thousand barrels per day exported to world markets Abralanabeb Turkish ports, and 100 thousand barrels per day by the movement of trucks and sold in Turkey, and perhaps also in Iran. The province also currently refines more than 200 thousand b j, the surplus is sold in the markets of neighboring countries.
3. minted Iraqi negotiator (and silence of satisfaction) on imports of oil accumulated from the sale of oil before this Convention, was claimed by it with billions of dollars. And ignore the strategic agreement with Turkey was demanding its abolition, being unconstitutional and inconsistent with the sovereignty of Iraq.
4. No information is available about the lawsuits against the federal government set up by the province: Have you been silent about it or it was agreed to cancel?
Thus we note above, there were no serious negotiations about the real problems between the province and the center. All that happened was the interim agreement, we do not believe that long lasting, and aims to reduce the deficit in the budget for 2015. It goes back to Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi's comments in Vienna after the end of the OPEC meeting on 27 October 2014 a second, does not find these statements suggest more than that . He downplayed the problems are fundamental, such as the occupation of Kirkuk and the export of oil, and focused on Tsidiralnaft over the next year, and said it would be up to 3.2 million b j. Because this rate can not be achieved without the production of approximately 500 thousand b j of Kirkuk and Kurdistan, it may indicate that the real negotiations had taken place during the visit of Mr. Adel Abdul-Mahdi to Arbil last month. Baghdad and meetings at the beginning of this month, were not for the purpose of negotiating seriously resolve the thorny between the center and the provincial problems, but were putting the final touches on the Erbil agreement between Messrs. Adel Abdul-Mahdi, and Nechirvan Barzani. The declaration was issued at the time of exporting 150 thousand b j from the Kirkuk oilfields in favor of the federal government, in exchange for $ 500 million to pay Baghdad province, represents the first phase of that agreement.
The bottom line is that the federal Iraqi side was not successful in negotiating performance. Venzerth beyond the budget did not go in 2015. It is committed to allocate additional funds for the region without taking into account its impact on the situation in Iraq in the near and long term. The silent (and silence of satisfaction) from the real problems with the region, such as the occupation of Kirkuk and management of its oil, and the uniqueness of the region's oil to its policy, especially with regard to export, and Ahtfad region accumulated from oil smuggling oil revenues, and the Treaty of strategic with Turkey, and others. If the federal government believes that the current conditions do not allow confrontation with the province, it was the mention of this in a statement issued on the second of December, and says the other differences will be discussed and resolved at a later time and better conditions. . Knowing that I do not think that the days will come better conditions than the conditions now, do not come with leaves negotiating stronger than we have now.
(*) Expert and researcher Iraqi oil
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