BAGHDAD / obelisk: The crisis of falling world oil prices and the controversy around one of the new crises that are linked to the oil industry and consumption in the world. Because Saudi Arabia in the crisis center where the decision to keep production at the current level level despite a drop in demand for a number of predictions, not because Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world, producing 10% of it, and not because they are large oil reserves state, but to a combination of factors relating to Saudi Arabia put the extraordinary in the oil industry, and the low cost and flexibility in production and the ability to compensate for production losses due to the enormous reserves of hard currency. Saudi Arabia has long played a role in the stability of the world's oil, and looked to the United States to play an important role during the wars that have passed over the region since the first Gulf War in 1990.
There is no need for us to tell the productive capacity of Saudi Arabia, but we must be reminded that it produces in today's 10 million barrels of oil and has the ability to pump 12.5 million barrels per day, more than any country in the world, and it is called by the product flip-flops, and despite the increase in the cost of exploration and export in recent years, but it is for Saudi Arabia remains less than the cost of oil production in any region in the world. As a general policy Arabia maintains a production capacity of between 1.5 extra 2 million barrels can be resorted to in case of necessity. And Saudi Arabia to deal with this capability as a means of achieving stability of the oil, or as he called Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi insurance policy to cope with unexpected crises in the global oil market, such as wars and natural disasters, strikes a parallel policy of so-called strategic reserves of oil.
Hence Valhbot in global oil prices by 20% in the months, many attributed to a combination of developments, including the decline in economic growth in China and Europe, especially Germany, the United States increased from light shale oil production rates of linkage. Many analysts said a number of ideas and conspiracy theories about Saudi cooperation Omraki- to hit Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil prices, Saudi Arabia Russian press sources and has been accused of trying to force Russia to abandon the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria through the new oil policy. With Producers US shale oil Saudi Arabia accused of trying to hit their production, where some of them warned of the collapse of the oil shale industry in case prices continue unchanged, The cost of shale oil production in America and oil sandstone in Canada is high, and the price remains at its current status loses producers their competitiveness in the market any Close the doors of production fields. Hence the policy of Saudi Arabia to maintain production levels in light of the decline in global demand actually will contribute to the elimination of competitors from shale and sandstone oil producers in the United States and Canada.
In response to the Saudi decisions may resort OPEC countries to adopt their own pricing policies to maintain their gains and avoid losses, which negatively affects the unity of OPEC. Hence, Venezuela was one of the first states calling for the convening of a meeting of the OPEC oil cartel, which brings together countries where they benefit from it for a good price in the market.
Away from the competitive dimension in the oil market and try to Saudi Arabia to maintain their markets in Asia, which issued its oil at discounted prices, some wonder if there is a politically motivated decision not to conspiracy theories?
It is true that the Arab countries have used oil as a weapon more than once, after the June 1967 war, the Arab states tried to America, Britain, West Germany and France to punish Israel for its support of the Arab move but failed to achieve its objectives because of the availability of a large surplus of oil in the global market. But Arab states have succeeded in creating a global oil crisis after the October / October war of 1973. Since that time, Saudi Arabia did not use the oil weapon, it has played a role in the subsequent crises conservative market stability. But this can be explained by the current Saudi behavior as a reaction and not try to control says Simon Henderson, a researcher in the Gulf and Energy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies. And connects researcher here decision Arabia internal accounts and related problems faced by the ruling family of hand aging King Abdullah, who was over ninety years old and need medical care for a permanent and said his movement a lot, and disease, Crown Prince Prince Salman. The author argues that oil policies in the UK draws the Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals Council, which is headed by the king and senior princes and ministers concerned. Was made by the Council's decisions in recent times.
Thus leaving the oil policy of the oil minister Naimi known by his words and his sober Almtina markets appreciated. But Naimi's comments apparently no longer lived up to the members of the ruling family. Henderson refers to the message man Prince Alwaleed bin Talal business of the king in which he expressed his fears of courage Naimi in excess of the limit, and the downgrade of the danger of the rise and decline in oil prices, in reference to published Saudi newspaper Gazette does not have to worry which told Naeemi spoken in a different context, and despite Prince Alwaleed does not occupy an official position, but his message also says Henderson drew the attention of the king, especially as they are asked to expel the minister.
In the case of the continuing decline in oil prices, Naimi has become a scapegoat. Usually oil minister comes from the technocrats working in the Saudi oil company Aramco but King Abdullah prefers to appoint a person from the Ministry of Finance or the Central Bank. The Deputy Minister is the current oil Abdulaziz bin Salman, son of the Crown Prince and was probably unlikely choice as successor to Naimi under King Abdullah attempts to curtail his father Prince Salman camp, especially after his appointment as crown prince horned crown prince.
As seen Henderson Saudi Arabia in the short term are able to cope with the low prices of oil and up to $ 80 per barrel, Finance Vaanaatadtha could last to meet the payment of staff salaries and maintaining the bureaucracy and budget without a deficit, and above all to satisfy the people who may under the auspices of the king and his care in exchange for freedom less. Hence the persistence of the crisis and low prices may lead to protests and strengthen the tendencies of the opposition and perhaps return to the jihadi elements. The current situation does not allow for venturing into Saudi Arabia under the crisis caused by the organization of the Islamic State in Iraq, which Aham- Daash. And externally will affect the oil price crisis for the leadership of Saudi Arabia in the Islamic world and the sovereignty of OPEC, even before they held a meeting in November 27 there are signs of a crisis within the Member States and the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and another led by Iran and Venezuela, and they want high oil prices even meet their financial needs.
In 1943 he wrote Evert me Deguelr Geological American known that oil was discovered in Mexico, speaking on the results of his mission to the Gulf to assess the oil region and the fields discovered in eastern Saudi Arabia perspective that the global attraction center for oil production is shifting from the Gulf Caribbean to the Middle East to the Gulf.
He wrote another member of the mission Deguelr The oil's greatest gift to the region through history and proved subsequent decades validity of these expectations, it is a blessing and a curse at the same time, despite the discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia late with him in the region (Iran in 1908, Iraq in 1927, Bahrain 0.1932), however, Saudi Arabia the center of the world's oil and is able, according to the Financial Times newspaper expression to cause tremors in Washington and Moscow remain. But the rule of the Saudi oil has been the object of competition and the search for alternative sources and also talk Daniel Yergin appears, in his important adventure: energy, security and re-formation of the modern world (2011), has pushed oil concentrate in one area of the world is witnessing frequent countries of the world crises searching and permanently and other cheap sources for Arab oil. After the war and the closure of the Suez Canal to international navigation major developed countries supertankers to transport large quantities of oil to pass through the Cape of Good Hope.
It is true that the thirst of China's oil to pay for exploration in every region of the world can be found in the oil, in the desert and the jungle and the high seas, but evolution in the means of alternative energy is a long-term threat to Arab oil, and since the arrival of President Barack Obama's judgment and talk does not end on the arrival of America case self-sufficiency in oil. But American policy remain subject to stable prices for oil and control in the energy market, all of this are important decisions not in Saudi Arabia to reassure the market, but to protect their interests and others.
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