Transforming Iraq's economy into market systems. Theory and Practice
Thursday 18 April 2019 33
Dr. Mohammad Riyad Hamza
The transition from a socialist to a market economy was not easy for Russia and Eastern European countries before and after 1991.
The manifestations of that era persist despite the fact that more than a quarter of a century has passed since the collapse of socialist regimes in those countries.
Although the societies of those countries are stable and have matured the political consciousness that was prepared to understand and embrace change. As well as the integration of infrastructures Of their economies.
That is, it provides most of the ingredients for the transition to a market economy in those countries. The transition to an economy has yet to be completed Market.
From the reign of Saddam, Iraq inherited a collapsed economy not only because of the 13-year-old blockade, but because of the regime's tendency to spend most of the national income on armaments and thus "folly" of waging two wars.
Moreover, the Iraqi economy was not socialist in the practical sense of the socialist system.
In 35 years of the Baath ruling, Iraq's annual financial resources (national income), the value of GDP, or the "annual fiscal balance" of expenditure were not advertised. General.
There is no real presence of the private sector in basic productive and service activities except as far as the system is served, and it was "graciously" on some to earn Loyalty.
The exhaustion of the Iraqi economy continued after 2003 because of terrorism, which led to confusion in the management of public funds and the spread of corruption, as recognized by the Prime ministers (Maliki, Abadi and Abdelmahdi).
The economy of Iraq after 2003 inherited a heavy legacy of indebtedness for most countries of the world.
The infrastructure of the oil sector has not been better than the other structures of the economy.
The reality of the Iraqi economy today, after 16 years, requires a multiplier effort to sustain growth.
The national economy, weakened by the war on terror, demanded spending that cut more than 70 percent of the annual financial resources from crude oil exports between 2003 and 2017.
That is a reality that does not change the market economy.
Not as pessimistic as the reality of its downsides to disrupt the real and future work of establishing infrastructure for a strong and sustainable Iraqi economy Growth.
Iraq, with its natural and human resources, is poised to accommodate 100 million people with European well-being (the definitive condition tool) is politically and economically managed on the basis of experience, integrity and loyalty to the nation before any loyalty...
The transformation of the economy into a market system from a political and economic reality that is challenged by fundamental challenges requires legislative and operational expertise to rehabilitate the infrastructure of agricultural, industrial, financial and trade relations.
As well as a full-security stabilization covering all of Iraq's governorates. To attract national investments And foreign.
In a World Bank report published in early April 2019 entitled "Iraq: Economic Prospects", summary: "The Iraqi economy is gradually improving after the severe economic pressures of the four years Past.
Real GDP growth is estimated at 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a marked improvement in security conditions and rising oil prices, reversing the 1.7 percent contraction in 2017.
The non-oil economy grew rapidly, registering a growth rate of 4 per cent, while oil production fell slightly lower than in 2017 in line with the agreement Opec.
Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence by signing several trade agreements with neighboring countries.
Reconstruction efforts are progressing at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly higher than in 2017, due to high domestic demand as well as high food and transport costs.
Economic prospects have improved because of higher oil prices and improved security.
But the constraints on capital spending will hinder the acceleration of recovery-driven growth.
Growth is expected to rise to 8.1 percent in 2020, mainly due to higher oil production and export.
Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive against the backdrop of high investments needed to rebuild the infrastructure network and private consumption Investment.
However, the recently approved 2019 budget represents a significant increase in recurrent spending, and unless there is a significant reorientation of the overall fiscal policy for a comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited public finance space to support post-war recovery and long-term development.
Higher spending, with lower oil prices, will increase the projected budget deficit by 5.4 percent of the GDP in 2019, before reducing it to about 3 percent over the period 2020-2021.
Lower oil prices and increased imports will convert the current transaction balance into a deficit, partly financed by international reserves "(The Bank's summary report has been completed).
The World Bank, in its 9 November 2018 report, is looking ahead to the expectation that Iraq's economy will maintain an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent over the next five years until 2023.
The Fund's report (on prospects for global economic growth) showed that the real GDP growth rate of the Iraqi economy by the end of this year is expected to reach 1.5 percent.
The economic growth rate was likely to reach 6.5 percent in 2019.
The inflation rate in the country was likely to stabilize at 2.2 percent this year and next year.
The IMF and World Bank forecasts are converging and can be adopted for future planning.
The modernistic theorists of capitalism are mistaken for the possibility of a shift from the weak marginal economies of the "Third World" countries.
To the "capitalist market economy" by applying the market laws applied in the capitalist systems of the advanced industrial countries.
The economies of the Arab oil-exporting countries may be an example of those countries whose governments dominate most of the production of goods and services by relying on financial resources from oil exports as a basis for financing expenditure General.
In the sense: we cannot find the same fundamentals that can be transformed from semi-totalitarian systems to market systems between day and night.
The economy of Iraq may be a model of reality and components to be screened by circumstances of an era of political instability And.
Dozens of articles on the development of the Iraqi economy were written after 2003, with most of them reviewing the constraints that make development a major challenge for the government.
And not repeat or re to describe the reality of the Iraqi economy but constructive criticism must reach decision makers in the legislative and executive powers And judicial.
The challenges of the Iraqi economy have been diagnosed and the government is supposed to be aware of them.
What must be emphasized is that addressing those challenges requires specialized expertise in all sectors of the economy in decision-making in the three authorities.
In the immediate phase, Iraq needs a government of expertise, which is the way to achieve progress and manage the country's resources on the basis of knowledge and pure loyalty to Iraq.
I disagree with those who say "the ministries are political positions, do not require expertise and specialization in the work of the ministry" but also, the minister who is not specialized in the affairs of his ministry and has no experience in managing it can pass on him a lot of tendentious manipulation of his corrupt employees, as well as undersecretary and general manager The Chairman of the Commission or The enterprise.
In a brief study published on the website of the Information News Network on 27 June 2018 by Dr. Sadiq Hussain Al-Rakabi (a London economist), which included the reality of the Iraqi economy and its development potential through the integration of economic sectors, the development of the legal environment, the participation of the private sector and the implementation of a new vision Of petroleum and natural resources of the Council, the development of work in the sectors of agriculture, industry, transport, communications, tourism, reconstruction, banks, other productive and service sectors, the activation of banking and investment activities, and the development of a realistic taxation system within the framework of fair and strict regulatory regimes.
To amend the monetary policy under the supervision of the central bank to achieve a monetary policy consistent with the development plans and regulation of the foreign exchange market and to strengthen the role of the central bank in controlling the work of banks and investing the cash reserve in line with international variables.
The study included valuable proposals for the development of the Iraqi economy.
The following paragraph, I find it necessary to recall the plagues of dictatorships and totalitarian regimes. I cite it to take the article as a plural For his purpose.
One of the most important reasons for the collapse of "totalitarian dictatorship" systems of government was to lie to the self and portray reality as it was not.
The flags of those States were politicized and controlled by the systems security and intelligence services, used to intimidate and reflect the reality of local economic reality Dire.
The one who raises his voice critically, either kills or deposits prison vaults.
Perhaps the rule of Saddam's resurrection. Mubarak ruled Egypt and other Arab regimes to prove it.
Therefore, one of the most important development potential is to hear constructive criticism and not disinterested.