Calls for the establishment of a sovereign fund to cover the debts of Iraq
Mohammed al-Ghazi
«Elaf» from Baghdad drawseconomic adviserIraqi Prime Minister, Arif insiders and backstage financial policy in IraqappearanceMohammed Saleh should adopt practical steps starting fromnext fiscal year iscreateaccount as "compensationpublic debt fund", which shalldeposited "any increase resulting from Oil prices above the budget target, to be used to cover any external or internal debt. "
Saleh stressed in an extensive dialogue with the "Ilaf" that the burden of war on the organization and advocates of reconstruction and the development of all areas of Iraq require a financial program is inevitably hard to serve the guidance of financial resources towards stability and development and to address the manifestations of waste, denying the existence of conditions from the International Monetary Fund on Iraq, As opposed to the steps of borrowing, but obligations that are consistent with the government reforms, while revealing at the same time for the issuance of Iraq to an external bond called (Euphrates) months after the issuance of another bond in the name of (Tigris).
Below is the text of the dialogue:
The International Monetary Fund in its latest report stressed that Iraq will face a double challenge this year and he does not expect economic activity with oil commitments and compensation for material losses resulting from the war against the duel .. Where to go in light of these challenges?
What I see is the need to re-engineer the financial Iraq, as many of the expenses were designed and developed in the periods of prosperity and oil, and therefore the public finances cut strongly for the purpose of building a true future to assess the financial policies and put Iraq on the right path.
It is important to emphasize that the burden of the war on terrorism and the reconstruction of Iraq and the development of all areas of Iraq require a financial program is hardened and not intended to serve the direction of financial resources towards stability and development and address the manifestations of waste.
There is only one option for Iraq's fiscal policy: financial consolidation in the short and medium term, diversification of the economy and national income through long-term development programs (Iraq 2030).
Are there "conditions" or "dictations" on Iraq by the IMF and the World Bank on the issue of loans?
There are those who believe that Iraq is subject to conditions in exchange for agreements with the International Monetary Fund .. I do not think that will not subject Iraq to the conditions of one is not weak to be subject to conditions .. In fact what the IMF requested from the requirements came in line with the reform steps that The government is still at the forefront of these reforms is the reform of the financial management system in Iraq and some laws .. The agreement with the International Monetary Fund will not affect the poor and there are four sectors will be away from the Convention is the defense, health, education and social welfare.
How does the Iraqi government deal with oil commitments in the light of low oil prices and recent agreements?
As far as OPEC is concerned, Iraq is committed to the current export ceiling because an increase of one dollar a year in the price of a barrel yields a return of 1.2 billion dollars to the public budget.
There is a growing internal need for crude oil, which is used as fuel to operate many non-invasive power plants.
The OPEC group is not considered a cartel for producers to influence the stability or stability of the world oil markets in the future unless the United States intervenes in the OPEC and becomes an influential member, which is currently ruled out. What leads to this belief?
Since the United States became a crude oil exporter in recent months, it has proved to the world that it is a huge force in innovation and technological innovation, especially in the production of crude oil from non-conventional sources such as rock oil to become less expensive as rapidly and as fast as possible, For oligopoly it is a double model both in directing the width of the fluff or ordering it monopolistically and at the same time.
It is serious in the long run that oil revenues and their financial accumulation should not be a source of significant financial surpluses for exporting countries outside the energy policy of the United States and the United States or their areas of influence, and the oil-exporting countries must face long financial deficits that will lead to deep financial adjustments.
Do you think that the licensing rounds should be reconsidered and do you think that mistakes are being paid for by Iraq today?
A specific provision of the Federal Budget Law of 2017 stipulated that the government review service contracts previously signed by STC, in order to address the mechanism of mechanism between low oil prices and extraction costs as well as cost justice. Note that the cost of a barrel of oil in Iraq is still low and the average does not exceed $ 10 and that many fields do not exceed the cost of extraction on $ 4 per barrel, whether opex or capex any operating or capital costs. Especially in the giant southern fields.
There are two types of oil investments, namely, compensated investment, in order to maintain the optimal level of production of the oil field. If the wells are not maintained, production is reduced by 7% annually, which requires constant development and maintenance. The other form of investment is the long-term, which is keeping pace with the growth of domestic and global demand on Iraq, which are ongoing projects and contracts.
What interests us is the interest of Iraq, and it is important that the costs are as low as possible. For example, we spent 45 billion dollars on the rights of companies, but the imports are 280 billion dollars, so the tours are useful. If the oil field is not developed and left, production will fall by 7 percent. And companies, on a fair basis and achieve the interests of Iraq.
Iraq 2030 .. Towards a comprehensive reform strategy .. What is the status of the private sector .. What do you mean by political economy for peace?
Diversification in energy sources is the beginning of the path of comprehensive economic diversification through the strategy of developing the private sector, encouraging investment and facing the problems of foreign investment in Iraq, especially in the core projects of the operation and strength of economic ties in our country, which is the ninth country in the world in the concentration of natural resources.
The political economy of peace that Iraq is heading towards after the end of terrorism and the liberation of human and land in the next few years will be followed by a comprehensive reform strategy, first and foremost the development of partnership with the private sector or so-called Iraq 2030, which will ensure economic diversification in which the contribution of the private sector in GDP with oil rises from 37% At the present time to reach 57 percent in the target year, with the availability of a competitive market system, providing social security in operation, guarantee and financing and the establishment of a system to facilitate the establishment of companies, small, medium or large, with the support of the State and its methodology Which will be based on a social market economy, in which the State guarantees competitiveness and social justice.
How do you see the banking sector in Iraq and are civil banks technically advanced on Rafidain Bank and Rashid?
The banking market is not homogenous. There is a clear polarization of capital and deposits by government banks, which account for only 90 per cent and 10 per cent for private banks. There are disparities in capital. Government banks in Iraq are late and even private banks operate according to the nineteenth century .
The main point in illegal banking operations is that the loan rate is up to 40 per cent. The meaning of this shadow banking system is prevailing in Iraq, with the interest rate rising to 100 per cent, which is usury.
In addition, governance is absent in the banking sector, which is the withholding of data from others. This results in negative or bad governance. There is something dangerous in Iraq, which is conducted outside the budget. It is the internal trade of creating separate profit and loss centers which work to maximize personal profits. This is a very dangerous point.
I think that the process of settling salaries in banks is important but subject to the availability of modern capabilities and techniques that make the resettlement process useful.
What serious talk about the "bankruptcy" of the country during the year 2020 .. Will the next budget will be a big deficit?
There is a program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where debt is reduced to less than 51% of GDP in 2022. That year, Paris Club debt repayments and other debts repayable
The management of the deficit is one of the tasks of the strategy of managing the budget in the coming years to contain the deficit and reduce it and not expand it from us, followed by lower rates of borrowing, both internal and external.
As long as you are hesitant to say that Iraq exports a single commodity, the dollar, do you think the extent to which the currency auction is a problem in Iraq should be reviewed?
The Iraqi economy has unfortunately attracted all the capital of Iraq to financial capital either to be a fast-profit business or banking capital, and this polarization was parallel to the rent economy, a generator of cash and liquidity and the economy of a private sector generated for money and profit and perpetuates consumer life.
This pattern of economies lacks a development agenda; our loss of development projects and the drawing up of development policies for Iraq is about financial policies to attract a fast-moving capitalist to raise money and transfer it to its strongholds abroad. Today this pattern will not paint a future for the Iraqi economy.
Is Iraq still under Chapter VII financially, why is every transfer to and from Iraq through an intermediary bank?
Iraq has been out of Chapter VII since June 2013 under UN Security Council Resolution 2108. The existence of a broker account with the Federal Reserve Bank in New York was based on Security Council Resolution 1483 in June 2003, the account of oil receipts and was called DFI or the Development Fund for Iraq, The designation since 2011 but the mechanism of deducting compensation of the war of Kuwait 5% of each barrel of Iraqi oil source goes to the United Nations Compensation Fund.
Stops have stopped since 2015 because of the financial situation experienced by Iraq and left only those compensation of $ 4.6 billion.
What after Iraq's second round of Treasury bills for international banks and banks and how much is the amount of these bonds?
Iraq has issued an external sovereign bond (Euphrates) in the international capital market, the duration of the bond is five years and pays interest 6.75% every six months.
The bond was rated by Fitch Ratings Company B, and the number of international investment companies that submitted for purchase and competed with about 350 international investment companies with investment facts increased by more than $ 12 trillion and have applied for (purchase) bond of Euphrates and approached 6 Including the Abu Dhabi Investment Fund, the Arab Monetary Fund and the California Education Fund, one of the wealthiest funds in the US West Coast and the world.
The bond has been registered for sale and purchase in the Irish stock market. It uses the European Union standards, which is one of the most accessible and efficient financial markets. The lowest bond category is 200 thousand dollars, which increases by multiples.
Thus, in 2017, Iraq will issue two consecutive international sovereign bonds to trade in the international capital market until the first day (the Tigris) with a benefit of 2.149% with a value of US $ 1 billion guaranteed by the US government. The bond (Euphrates) is guaranteed by the Government of the Republic of Iraq.
What is the nature of Iraqi debt and what do you mean by debt abhorrent?
Starting with what is traded on the rise of international debt on Iraq to 111.725 billion dollars is incorrect and here must analyze the composition of these debts, as it is analytically, 42 billion dollars, or 38% of Iraq's external debt is an odious debt It has no legal documents but only international allegations, and all debts due to the period of the economic embargo on Iraq were written off in accordance with the Paris Club Agreement signed on November 21, 2004 and not recognized internationally.
There are 48 billion dollars of debt due to the Iran-Iraq war, which is not borne by the Iraqi people. It should be noted that the Paris Club agreement has written off more than 80% of Iraq's sovereign debt and many others, but the other 20% representing Iraq's processing of weapons of mass destruction It was written off by Iraq.
The resort to foreign loans after 2014 came as a result of the decline in oil prices and because of the war against the urge to run the economy.
The IMF loan is $ 5.3 billion, which is disbursed in the form of 13 checks with the Fund, of which 6 are major reviews and the rest are sub-revisions. After each review, the Fund launches a payment of the loan. The agreement was approved on July 7, 2016. The second round was held in Amman through a technical team. There is a political team headed by the Governor of the Central Bank Ali Alaq and I am with them. We hope that after this review, the Fund will launch a loan of approximately 840 million dollars.
There are some politicians are calling on Iraq to resort to international organizations to borrow to overcome the crisis, stressing that this will hold Iraq in the future .. What solutions you propose to pay these debts?
There are practical steps to be adopted starting from the fiscal year 2018, the first "to create an account on behalf of the Public Debt Compensation Fund" in which to deposit any increase resulting from the improvement of oil prices above the target rate in the federal budget used to compensate for any internal or external debts planned during the fiscal year or Extinguish previous debt as the case to be committed to the current prices estimated in the supplementary budget for the year 2017 of $ 44.4 per barrel of oil exported during the period 2018-2020.
The Public Debt Compensation Fund account receives capital income from the sale of land, state real estate, and remittance income.
In the second step, it is necessary to adopt and expand the system of outsourcing at the level of customs, "through contracting with international companies in a manner that ensures the efficiency of inspection and collection and customs clearance, which increases the sovereign resources of the state, reduces the cost of imports and eliminates systemic and other corruption as well as maximizing public resources, The system of outsourcing to the tax system of small units assigned to grant licenses to civil companies to open the doors of tax collection on the adoption of the tax system cut
And further expansion of the system of partnership with the private sector in the distribution of electric power to be the year 2018 Finance is the starting point to cover all regions of the country. And to include this in the provisions of the Budget Act of 2018.
I would also like to emphasize that the sales tax law should be legislated by calculating the final value tax on the service and that the decisions and the gradual financial regulations should be taken in order to avoid complicating the tax system of sales tax. For example, food, building materials, etc. are exempted in the first stage.
Are these steps alone or are there other outlets?
Of the steps also improve the management of collection of fees (non-sovereign) and wages approved in accordance with Article 24 of the Federal Budget Act of 2017 on the establishment of a clear and transparent accounting system shows the movements of income and expenditure and disbursements at all spending units and provide the Ministry of Finance movement of the account and its assets monthly.
As well as the development of the fuel support system and limited to the poor consumption classes through social welfare programs. The state-owned and fuel-producing state companies will maintain a cost accounting system that will demonstrate the actual costs of production and avoid the "free ride" aspects of unrealistic profit collection due to the unrealistic pricing of refined crude oil and marketed internally.
Does the government control the resources of religious tourism and the extent to which it benefits from its imports?
Is a market if the private sector benefits, the national economy is the beneficiary in the cycle of employment and business, but the problem is that the sector and its employees must work with greater transparency and greater clarity and turn into companies that are not registered companies and preferably to become private companies contribution.
The most important is that these companies are competitive in providing the best services to tourists and that there is a governmental regulatory body that regulates the work of these companies according to the economic and legal system. If they join correctly, it will generate revenues of at least five to seven percent of GDP, Contribution of agriculture to GDP in Iraq at present, noting that the GDP is more than 200 trillion Iraqi dinars.
What customs and border crossings can achieve revenue per year?
If the economy is weak, the ability to absorb taxes will also be limited. It can not be said that there are no gaps in the Iraqi economy. Today, the share of taxes is only five percent of GDP, which is the lowest in fact. And any other income while this should not be less than 30 percent. Here we are faced with two issues. The first is that there is weakness in the collection system, especially in the tax containers and access to it. The second issue is that it is the development policies that generate income. Taxation and fees.
The budget of 2017 was supposed to be non-oil revenues, namely, direct taxes, income, duties, etc., indirect taxes, customs and other fees, amounting to 11 trillion Iraqi dinars, but we noted that all taxes have achieved only between four and five trillion.
Customs, historically and due to the negligence it suffered after 2003, the day was canceled and the Ministry of the Interior and then returned to finance, a long story of tragedy, which continued to generate about 600 million dollars annually, while the private sector trade amounted to more than 55 billion dollars annually, Big: Where does this difference go? We are planning at the historical levels that the customs should come from the revenues of about eight billion dollars annually. This requires control and imposing discipline on the customs ports and the achievement of these revenues from customs alone can fill the debts of Iraq, and here I always say that control of customs is to preserve Iraqi sovereignty.
How much does the state pay employees' salaries? Is this not required to activate the private sector with the passage of the Social Security Law?
Over the past 10 years, the Iraqi state has spent about 400 billion dollars on the salaries of its employees, as the number of state employees today is more than four million. This makes the country a challenge. It can not absorb this figure. It should not be the only lever for jobs. Should look for alternatives. The alternative that the IMF wants and wants is the reformist policy of the government. It must be in the right direction and not in limited services in 120 services.
Here, the principle of financing partnership should be activated as one of the available partnerships between the State and the private sector and part of the country's wealth is available for cheap and affordable lending to the private sector and thus the creation of market-creating units. Therefore, the government's policy goes in two directions: first, that money is available for the easy loan, and the second is to protect private sector workers from unemployment, sudden demobilization and retirement.
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