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Iraq and the IMF

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1 Iraq and the IMF on Thu Jul 07, 2016 8:14 pm

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Iraq and the IMF

6/7/2016 12:43:00

Iraq and the IMF

Read the Government's obligations to 2016 under a fund trend 22/December 2015

Because of the difficult economic conditions experienced by Iraq escalating level of military spending after the control organization known as (ISIS) terrorist on nearly a third of the country since June 2014, and low oil prices late the same year, causing a shock to the General State budget revenue, which led to strengthening the budget deficit.

And for that, the Government began meetings with international financial institutions, particularly the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for financial aid as provided for in the General Budget Act for 2016, this requires him to issue a "letter of intent and memorandum of economic and financial policies.

The Iraqi Government issued a letter of intent and memorandum of economic and financial policies in 22/December 2015 the Government will describe the policies implemented under the IMF experts will monitor program Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies MEFP)) as part of International Monetary Fund experts will monitor program Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) to show the Government is performing well and in a practical manner, then moves to a funding program as quickly as possible.

Most importantly, note:

– A description of the significant fiscal conditions patch implemented by the Iraqi Government in 2015 and plan to continue to implement it through 2016.

– Reforms in foreign exchange policy and public financial management and banking supervision that the Iraqi Government is committed to its implementation through the year 2016.

Moreover, the Iraqi Government informed Fund taken any additional steps that might be necessary. The Government will consult with the Fund regarding the adoption of any measures of this kind. Policy note identifies recent economic developments and prospects and economic and financial policies in 2015 and 2016.

Data security-political framework

Politically, the Iraqi state very difficult stage-everyone especially within Iraq and followers abroad knows and realizes its dimensions — a product of political dilemmas, deferred crises since the political change in 2003, the lack of necessary legislative framework resulting from the lack of State-building vision and attention only by narrow partisan and sectarian interests. To make matters worse, last April, and a consequent vacancies in government positions and not to Parliament, and as a result the political reform crisis turned into a crisis in the management of the highest State institutions, might deteriorate more to turn into a crisis of governance, especially with the growing decline of the legitimacy of the current political system by his people's rejection and system administrators are not aware of the nature of the stage and given the reliance interests and achievements that they have made after the change, even negative political realities are reflected on the daily life of citizens and economic security class The Foundation.

Security, as well as the ebbing power of legitimate state coercion and weak law enforcement institutions in the entire territory of the State of Iraq, the Iraqis are fighting over the front to eradicate the terrorist organization "Islamic State" and attacks that put Iraq in a very dangerous situation, and still is, despite receding regulation and remanded and the big decline to weak security situation in the rest of Government-controlled areas in Central and southern Iraq, widespread manifestations of crime wallanzam. As well as the situation of internal displacement and forced displacement and sectarian who produced more than three million displaced people and far from the residence, and approximately 10 million (or nearly one third of Iraq's population) need for humanitarian assistance.

It was the international community and international institutions rely on reforms, and they felt that the political system in Iraq, they realized the seriousness of the current phase and began taking appropriate steps out of the dark tunnel and overcome the danger. They clashed with the reality of those actions and passive into complex political crisis, this point have a weak State institutions and negative performance.

In this situation it is important that the Iraqi Government proceeded – as part of its efforts to reduce the deficit of the State budget for the 2016 and travel to foreign borrowing – to provide a policy paper and a letter of intent to the IMF as a preliminary stage to enter the credit card, this ranks on Iraq-if walking towards the implementation of the agreement with international financial institutions, notably the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. obligations in particular that the Iraqi Government is engaged with those institutions and with the help of the American side to enter the credit card and collection of loans.

And the nature of these obligations is in several aspects:

— Social-security.

-Economic policies

-Obligations to provide legislative frameworks that support those economic policies such as the investment Amendment Act

Read the economic indicators and commitments in the economic and financial policy paper:

Economic activity

– Non-oil economic activity shrinking slipped by 8% for 2015 by reduced capital expenditure after declining oil revenues, after witnessing the 9% boat contraction through the year 2014.
In 2016, is expected to increase GDP growth to (10.6%) Thanks to the expected increase in oil production rate (20%) With the survival of non-oil GDP constant.

The official reserves of foreign currency

– Because of low oil prices, expects the current account balance shifted from a surplus of 1% of GDP in 2014 to 6% deficit of GDP in 2016. The deficit will total $11 billion in 2016, this expectation is based on imposing oil prices remain below 40 us dollars a barrel.

This deficit-financed in large part by pulling large amounts of official reserves of foreign currency, and this would reduce the total reserve of $67 billion to $43 billion in 2014 (7 months) from 2016. But the recent rise in oil prices and exceeded the threshold of $45 and complete liberation from the control of "ISIS" and reduced military spending, may reduce low reserve.

So expect the box and resume the reserves in the year 2017 onwards from 48 billion dollars (7 months) from the year 2017 to 88 billion dollars (10 months) from 2020, due to the rise in oil prices.


Public deficit

The decline in oil prices led to a significant deterioration in the fiscal position, the Fund expects the deficit in the budget for the year 2016 to 10% of the total GDP, provided that the adoption of the following:

-A significant reduction in non-oil fiscal balance first [1], or about 12 percent of non-oil GDP (24 trillion Iraqi dinars, or $20 billion) and is expected to be finished by the bulk of it by the end of 2015. This commitment has been hampered by political stalemate and forestry stagnation of economic activity.

– Substantial increase in domestic funding as well as short term external financing consistent with debt sustainability in the medium term. To minimize the impact of financial correction on the population and the refugees, the Government will protect social expenditures (spending on health, education and social protection network which supports remittances, displaced or refugees).

General financial program in 2016

At 2/December 2015 the Iraqi Government presented to the Parliament amendments to a draft budget presented on 18 October 2015, targeting an initial deficit fiscal oil up to 77 trillion dinars (56% of non-oil GDP), this will be achieved through the Government's implementation of the following actions:

– Collect at least (8.8) trillion dinars (6.5% of non-oil GDP) in non-oil revenue, includes (1) trillion Iraqi dinars from higher taxes and wages.

-Select the first spending non-oil amount (86) trillion dinars (63% of non-oil GDP) and will again achieve this emphasis in non-oil primary spending mostly on higher level bekil of the low level of 2015 by postponing non-oil investment projects of lower priority for subsequent years.

We believe that this trend and delivery for this procedure will reflect negatively on productive activity, and therefore has to be thinking about reducing unnecessary expenditure of State institutions and regulate spending and this will save big money.

– For non-oil primary deficit financing of public finance, and investment spending oil and debt service, the Government will resort to oil revenues (73 trillion dinars), and local financing (20 trillion dinars), and external financing (4 trillion dinars).

– Local funding will be covered (20 trillion dinars) by issuing Treasury remittances, are refinancing by commercial banks until (7 trillion dinars) in Iraqi Central Bank discount window, national bonds to the public at $ (5 trillion dinars), reduction of deposits in the banking sector amount (4 trillion dinars).

– External financing (4 trillion dinars) will be financed through:

A planned version of aliorobond ($2 billion)
B-Islamic Development Bank loans ($500 million)
T-project loans from the World Bank ($50 billion)
-Loan from the Japanese international cooperation agency JICA (502 million dollars)
C-Italy ($40 million)

The Government should not resort to accumulating arrears as a way of financing the deficit, and abide by the zero ceiling for external arrears, and that the Government inventory of domestic arrears (religion) to ensure the accumulation and uncle do repay it if the audit as necessary.

Iraq's obligations on public finance

In order to strengthen financial discipline, the Government will in the following:

– The Ministry of finance to present a new draft of the Financial Administration Act in accordance with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank notes, which was submitted to the State Council. It should be noted that the Financial Administration Act in force is the Financial Administration Act and public debt number 95 in 2004.

– So far the Government has included (2.4) trillion Iraqi dinars for domestic arrears balance in 2016, after the Government set domestic arrears worth (7.3) trillion dinars, including 5 trillion dinars piled up in 2015. The Government will conduct a survey and check and payment of domestic arrears, as a first step, the Planning Department will be completed in February 2016.

– Design and implementation with technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund, a system for monitoring adherence to budget implementation based on overall financial plan for the implementation of the budget.

-Design of an integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and implemented with the help of the World Bank. As a first step, adopt a roadmap with end of April 2016 separates functional requirements, including the chart of accounts and tracking expenses over several years and migrate resources from year to year and managing credit and cash management arrangements.

-Public investment management reform (PIM) with the help of the World Bank. To implement this commitment, the Prime Minister issued a decision on 18 October 2015 honest to public investment management framework based on the recommendations of the World Bank, this includes choosing investment and implementation and subsequent evaluation, that the Ministry of planning to create a public investment management unit to sort projects based on feasibility studies, and the establishment and management of the integrated Bank project (IBP) to run as a subsystem of the Iraq development system (IDMS). [2]

– The need to apply existing measures for financial disclosure by senior officials to improve governance and strengthening efforts to combat corruption and integrity Commission continues to publish the names of not submit financial disclosure.

Obligations regarding banking supervision

-Approximately 89% of banking system assets are grouped in three of the State's banks (7) an Islamic one banks, these banks are (Mesopotamia, Rasheed, the Iraqi Trade Bank).

– The Government will restructure the Rafidain and Rashid. As a first step, the Ministry of finance would at the end of February 2016 hiring international Auditors to check the recent financial data to banks, in cooperation with the Executive Committee of restructuring for both the banks and the World Bank.

And by the Central Bank, will continue to implement the reform measures to enhance the stability of the banking sector in Iraq:

-Start using international bank account number (IBAN) in Iraq.

– Raising the banks capital requirement (250) billion dinars, equivalent to (214) million. Each has its own banks (32), raising its capital to that level except for one bank.

-Hiring a consultant to help the Iraqi Central Bank in strengthening precautionary measures for liquidity and capital adequacy ratio.

– Review the precautionary measures to the Central Bank of Iraq with the help of regional technical assistance Center for the Middle East (METAC) of the International Monetary Fund.

– Set up a deposit insurance system provides for the establishment of a public institution licensed by the Central Bank, banks have the opportunity to contribute to the capital of this institution.

– The enactment of banking financial institutions providing Islamic services.

Follow up program
The program will be reviewed on a quarterly basis, and will be quantitative targets regarding:

– Non-oil primary balance (no difference between non-oil revenue and non-oil primary expenditure excluding interest)

Net domestic assets-Central Bank

– Foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank


– Social spending and lack of new external arrears from MO Ka December 2015

Each program review will identify a number of structural norms in areas necessary to the success of the programme, the first audit must be completed by the end of may 2016.

The Government intends to offer a good performance under this program which traced the IMF experts to go to a possible financial agreement with the Fund as soon as possible.

The table below contains the contents of the audit should be completed by the end of last month:

The measures
Planned audit completed the implementation measures solutions
Macro-economic justification
Case

The Cabinet's approval of amendments to the draft budget for the year 2016 and forwarded to Parliament so that they are in line with the macroeconomic framework which has been agreed in accordance with the program being watched by experts.

Maintain overall economy
Been updated

Complete the survey conducted by the Planning Department on domestic investment spending arrears (amount of pain delays, the identity of the creditor, the invoice, select the goods and services offered, and the line of credit balance which allows such spending)

The first review
Enhance cash management

The Ministry of finance and the Central Bank to prepare a list of all bank accounts under the control of the Ministry of finance and each subsidiary spending units spending units in the Federal Government with the Central Bank and State-owned banks. The details should include the stocks until December 2015 and the account number and the title, location, purpose, and the responsible party and the confide.

The first review
Enhance cash management

Appointment of an auditor or more for another audit financial statements of good banking and SUWAIDI according to international standards.

The first review
Promote financial sector stability

Adoption of the Financial Administration Act Project Finance Minister in line with the observations made by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on the latest Bill was submitted to the State Council.

Second revision
Strengthening public financial management

The finale say: must demonstrate positive obligations above on the Iraqi situation. In this connection it should be recalled that Iraq – as mentioned – is going through very difficult economic conditions and increased intensity envelope passive security and fight the terrorist organization "Islamic State" on a broad front from its territory by increasing expenditure on armaments and battle requirements, this part.

On the other hand, the Iraqi economy suffers from a structural crisis-known manifestations of all — over decades of time reflected badly on all economic activity and has appeared in the last two years in financial liquidity crisis. Accordingly, it calls for broad economic reform program under the economic philosophy of the State specified by the Constitution in accordance with articles (24, 25, 26).

So we think that the above obligations constitute important beginning to benefit from international expertise in this area and employ them in proportion to the Iraqi nation status at present, especially if the above obligations would entail moving to a financial agreement with the Fund, and that short interest in funding part of ager State budget for 2016.

We believe that turn into her venture, which employed loans-get-to increase capital expenditure to achieve two goals,

I: move economic activity,

II: improving the infrastructure to reflect positively on the overall activity.

PUKmedia/Dr Hussein Ahmad Al-Furat Centre for development and strategic studies

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